[AusNOG] Simon Hackett's slide deck from AusNOG 2014 with added audio

[Robert Hudson]

On 10 September 2014 12:43, Paul Wallace <paul.wallace at mtgi.com.au> wrote:

> Yes .. that was the line Stephen Conroy pushed!
>
> Made in the total absence of any proper technical advice.
>
> Made by way of pure guesswork.
>
> The line is based upon the flawed assertion that, due to history only ever
> showing a demand for more and more fixed line bandwidth then the future
> must demand, inexorably, not only more of the same but also via a
> continuation of the logarithmically  upwards shape to the demand curve!
>
> It was only ever convenient political spin.
>

There is precisely zero evidence to suggest anything to the contrary.  Yes,
historical usage is no guarantee of future requirements (wow, that sounds
like financial advice), but until something occurs that breaks the existing
trend, it's all that we have.


> You could see that from the beginning after Conroy slagged HFC, a service
> (that the CIO of the largest cable co on earth told me last week) will
> reach 1Gb via docsis 3.1!
>

Wow - a whole 1Gbps.  Last I checked, I can do 40Gbps over fibre without
terrible difficulty, and I know there are MUCH higher rates available if
I'm willing to put the time and effort in.  And of course, the CIO of a
company which derives its revenue stream from the sale of services over
DOCSIS cable infrastructure (in which they've already made a significant
investment) wouldn't have any vested interest in convincing people that
DOCSIS3.1 was the be-all and end-all of consumer-level service delivery.

You also completely ignore upstream.  And you ignore implementation issues
- yes, the DOCSIS 3.1 standard will allow up to 1Gbps downstream, but that
will depend on what the people running the network decide to implement.  To
give you a good example of this - both Telstra and Optus have DOCSIS3
services available - they do get around 100Mbps downstream, but are, due to
implementation decisions, limited to only single-digit upstream Mbps speeds.

>
> Sadly these sorts of shenanigans should be expected when the politicians
> enter the business world .. long after the business world is established.
>

The business world is the one that limits the implementation of DOCSIS3 in
Australia today, and the one that limited ADSL to 1500/256 all those years
ago, then claimed 12Mbps was the limit for ADSL2, and so on and so forth.
 The politicians entered this arena because the business world  (rightly)
looks after its own interests, and right now, those interests are well
served by high prices for ADSL2+ services that do not deliver the headline
speeds.  VDSL2 would have been great, but has not (as I understand it) yet
been ratified for use in Australia - and will only be implemented by
business when there's a commercially viable business case for it once it is
ratified.

There's nothing wrong with business looking after its own interests - but
those interests often don't align well with the general interests of the
entire Australian population.  Government's job, in the end, is to look
after the interests of the population - and thats why they're involved.
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