[AusNOG] Netflix in AU, break up Go4, or TPG peering breakup?

[Joshua D'Alton]

Morning Noggers,

I've been mulling over the possibility netflix comes to AU, and what that
might mean especially re breaking up the Go4 closed peering.

Firstly, if netflix just does local cache with the top ISPs by
volume/subscribers-who-will-use-netflix, then looking at the players,
listed roughly based on traffic and including significant/interesting
players, we can probably assume:
BigPond - definitely yes
Optus - yes
TPG - yes
iiNet - yes

Eftel/M2/Dodo - yes
Vocus - yes
Exetel - probably yes

If netflix were to come in themselves just to say Sydney, and notch up an
agreement with Telstra (who will likely give it, 40Gbit domestic traffic <
40Gbit on SX), then it could be that Telstra would be the sole upstream for
AU much like is the situation in US with basically only Cogent or Level3
previously.

For breaking things up, obviously this would be bad, as Telstra will be
wanting to bring home the bacon with all their downstreams (of which, iinet
eftel etc would probably then just do their own cache of some sorts, even
without the netflix program). Presumably not much would change with Go4,
although this might give Telstra enough ammunition to actually break the
Go4 and become the sole Gang of one (a very scary thought, esp with the
recent NBN/Telstra developments), not that ACCC would allow that, but...

But what if netflix came in with a non-Go4... either iinet eftel vocus etc,
be it just sydney pops or the capitals, all of the non-Go4 would have cheap
access via peering, and the Go4 would potentially be cut out if said
non-Go4 didn't announce netflix to those upstreams.. would this break the
Go4?

Or what if TPG were to avail themselves of a cheap peering product, one
that would give anyone (wholesalers?) access to the other 2(3) Go4, would
they become the Cogent of AU with Telstra/Optus refusing to upgrade ports
at capacity (not currently, but if..)?

Interesting thoughts, I'd be interested in seeing what others have mulled,
if they have, or what conclusions people have come across in this or
similar thoughts?

Enjoy!
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