[AusNOG] VDSL2, was Re: 4G advances

[Mark Delany]

> sword of Damocles for the last five years,

If the largest 2-3 ISPs struggled to put competitive DSL kit in just
10% of Australian exchanges, it's a long bow to draw to suggest that
any were close to deploying the 1000s of VDSL cabinets and FTTC
backhaul needed to have a meaningful impact on the market.

Also, given that the NBN will take nearly 15 years from announcement
to completion, you're suggesting that ISPs were planning a huge
investment with an expected ROI timeframe in excess of 15/2 = 7.5
years? How many ISPs have access to a large swathe of capital this
patient?


Much as some folk might like to blame global warming on the NBN, VDSL
probably failed for a confluence of reasons: modest incremental gain,
expensive deployment, questionable ROI, uncertain quality of copper
plant, difficult regulatory framework and looming obsolescence. Oh,
and only one company with access to sufficient capital to make a
meaningful VDSL deployment across the country.

So sure, maybe Telstra was stymied, but squirt-sized ISPs were never
going to do a massive VDSL deployment without huge government or
regulatory assistance.


Mark.