[AusNOG] iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

Thu Sep 8 21:27:10 EST 2011

Tim,

Yup!  I am running IOS5beta7 on the iPad2 and iPhone4, and I did install
iCloud beta into Lion, but it crashes at the moment when you open the
System Preference panel. Not sure what is going on with that... this is what
happens when you run cutting edge betas.

But I will be doing some testing once it is all up and running.  Hopefully
I will sync 2 * desktops, iPhone, iPad2 and Macbook Air.  I am sick of
this iTunes syncing stuff to only one machine.

...Skeeve

--
Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd
skeeve at eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
facebook.com/eintellego
twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia

--
eintellego - The Experts Who The Experts Call
Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade

-----Original Message-----
From: Tim Beare <tbeare at staff.chariot.net.au>
Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2011 17:34:36 +0930
To: <ausnog at lists.ausnog.net>
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

>You appear to have a lot of i-things skeeve - sound's like you would be
>a good test case for i-cloud :)
>
>On 4/09/2011 2:29 PM, Skeeve Stevens wrote:
>> Yeah, I didn't even think how it will smash the hell out of 3G/4G mobile
>> broadband networks.
>>
>> The TIO complaints could be huge when people all run out of cap and have
>> to buy more.
>>
>> I know my iPhone alone has 8Gb of Photos on it.. And I don't even sync
>>the
>> 20Gb I have in my iPhoto to the iPhone/iPadŠ much less the iPhone
>>video's
>> I've shot which are about 1Gig per 5minutes or so.
>>
>> Damn.
>>
>> ŠSkeeve
>>
>> --
>> Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
>> skeeve at eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
>> Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
>> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
>> facebook.com/eintellego or eintellego at facebook.com
>> twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
>> PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia
>>
>> --
>> eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
>> - Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Bevan Slattery<Bevan.Slattery at nextdc.com>
>> Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2011 03:59:00 +0000
>> To: Skeeve Stevens<skeeve at eintellego.net>, "'ausnog at ausnog.net'"
>> <ausnog at ausnog.net>
>> Subject: RE: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?
>>
>>> Good thinking Skeeve.  From my view:
>>>
>>> - Wireless/Mobile networks will strain much the same way they did when
>>> the iPhone first came out
>>> - Increase in complaints to TIO due to network congestion issues
>>> - Increase in complaints to TIO for excess data usage particularly on
>>> wireless networks (as punters don't realise how much they're pushing to
>>> the cloud)
>>> - Fixed line data will increase due to people realising it's best to
>>> upload using home broadband via wifi
>>> - Corporate fixed line may also increase as people bring in devices to
>>> the office to "upload" and sync (initially)
>>>
>>> There have been few "large" incidents of recent years in which net
>>>access
>>> slowed to a crawl due to congestion.  I remember watching PIPE IX
>>>during
>>> the afternoon of Steve Irwin's death as it being something that created
>>> some issues for a few networks.  Networks are more resilient and
>>>scalable
>>> and at least there is more competition in bandwidth.
>>>
>>> But I agree Skeeve -  I feel this will be different.  There are
>>>probably
>>> 2 million (wild guess) iDevices out there.  If 10% sync in the first
>>>few
>>> days and assuming each one had 3GB to upload that's 600TB's or
>>>20,000Mb/s
>>> of demand for those 3 days.  Fortunately everyone buys bandwidth on a
>>> symmetrical basis.  So the upload should not generally be an issue from
>>> an external bandwidth network dimensioning perspective.  But the access
>>> will be a little more challenging.
>>>
>>> This is where the NBN will have their first "real" opportunity to show
>>>a
>>> real example of its benefits.  If I worked in the NBN marketing
>>> department, I'd just get two (2) real people sync their iPhones to the
>>> cloud with a timer and record the demonstration.  Obviously there are
>>>two
>>> (2) issues with this with the first being the commercial hobbling of
>>>the
>>> new network so you only get 1Mbps upstream on the base product and the
>>> second is that you only get to use your NBN connection when you're at
>>> home.
>>>
>>> This is where the mobile networks will fill the gap.  A gap that maybe
>>>a
>>> little too far in the early days at least until they can again
>>> re-dimension their networks to handle the new paradigm.
>>>
>>> Cheers
>>>
>>> [b]
>>>
>>> PS:  Have heard some really interesting thinking from a major telco and
>>> the deployment of alternative wireless solutions to help with this type
>>> of event and future ones.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net
>>> [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Skeeve Stevens
>>> Sent: Saturday, 3 September 2011 8:44 PM
>>> To: 'ausnog at ausnog.net'
>>> Subject: [AusNOG] iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?
>>>
>>> Hey all,
>>>
>>> I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on
>>> the Internet.
>>>
>>> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL,
>>> Cable, wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene
>>> amounts of gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data
>>>and
>>> so on to their data centres.
>>>
>>> Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do
>>> DropBox, but from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this
>>> might be a 'bad thing'.
>>>
>>>
>> > From what I can see there are some key issues:
>>> *	Users with plans that count upload and download together.
>>> *	The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
>>> *	The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
>>> *	The design of some transit metrics
>>>
>>> So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider
>>> could have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections
>>>slowed
>>> because of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps,
>>>slowing
>>> down the backhaul segment of the network, and as residential providers
>>> are mostly download, some purchase transit from their upstreams in an
>>> symmetric fashion.
>>>
>>> This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there is
>>> anything to actually worry about, or there are other implications that
>>> I've not really thought of yet.
>>>
>>>
>>> ...Skeeve
>>>
>>> --
>>> Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
>>>
>>> skeeve at eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
>>>
>>> Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
>>>
>>> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
>>>
>>> facebook.com/eintellego or eintellego at facebook.com
>>>
>>> twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
>>>
>>> PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>>
>>> eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
>>>
>>> - Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade
>>>
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>
>
>-- 
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