[AusNOG] iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

[Matthew Moyle-Croft]

iTestCase?  

MMC

On 08/09/2011, at 5:34 PM, Tim Beare wrote:

> You appear to have a lot of i-things skeeve - sound's like you would be a good test case for i-cloud :)
> 
> On 4/09/2011 2:29 PM, Skeeve Stevens wrote:
>> Yeah, I didn't even think how it will smash the hell out of 3G/4G mobile
>> broadband networks.
>> 
>> The TIO complaints could be huge when people all run out of cap and have
>> to buy more.
>> 
>> I know my iPhone alone has 8Gb of Photos on it.. And I don't even sync the
>> 20Gb I have in my iPhoto to the iPhone/iPadŠ much less the iPhone video's
>> I've shot which are about 1Gig per 5minutes or so.
>> 
>> Damn.
>> 
>> ŠSkeeve
>> 
>> --
>> Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
>> skeeve at eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
>> Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
>> Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
>> facebook.com/eintellego or eintellego at facebook.com
>> twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
>> PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia
>> 
>> --
>> eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
>> - Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Bevan Slattery<Bevan.Slattery at nextdc.com>
>> Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2011 03:59:00 +0000
>> To: Skeeve Stevens<skeeve at eintellego.net>, "'ausnog at ausnog.net'"
>> <ausnog at ausnog.net>
>> Subject: RE: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?
>> 
>>> Good thinking Skeeve.  From my view:
>>> 
>>> - Wireless/Mobile networks will strain much the same way they did when
>>> the iPhone first came out
>>> - Increase in complaints to TIO due to network congestion issues
>>> - Increase in complaints to TIO for excess data usage particularly on
>>> wireless networks (as punters don't realise how much they're pushing to
>>> the cloud)
>>> - Fixed line data will increase due to people realising it's best to
>>> upload using home broadband via wifi
>>> - Corporate fixed line may also increase as people bring in devices to
>>> the office to "upload" and sync (initially)
>>> 
>>> There have been few "large" incidents of recent years in which net access
>>> slowed to a crawl due to congestion.  I remember watching PIPE IX during
>>> the afternoon of Steve Irwin's death as it being something that created
>>> some issues for a few networks.  Networks are more resilient and scalable
>>> and at least there is more competition in bandwidth.
>>> 
>>> But I agree Skeeve -  I feel this will be different.  There are probably
>>> 2 million (wild guess) iDevices out there.  If 10% sync in the first few
>>> days and assuming each one had 3GB to upload that's 600TB's or 20,000Mb/s
>>> of demand for those 3 days.  Fortunately everyone buys bandwidth on a
>>> symmetrical basis.  So the upload should not generally be an issue from
>>> an external bandwidth network dimensioning perspective.  But the access
>>> will be a little more challenging.
>>> 
>>> This is where the NBN will have their first "real" opportunity to show a
>>> real example of its benefits.  If I worked in the NBN marketing
>>> department, I'd just get two (2) real people sync their iPhones to the
>>> cloud with a timer and record the demonstration.  Obviously there are two
>>> (2) issues with this with the first being the commercial hobbling of the
>>> new network so you only get 1Mbps upstream on the base product and the
>>> second is that you only get to use your NBN connection when you're at
>>> home.
>>> 
>>> This is where the mobile networks will fill the gap.  A gap that maybe a
>>> little too far in the early days at least until they can again
>>> re-dimension their networks to handle the new paradigm.
>>> 
>>> Cheers
>>> 
>>> [b]
>>> 
>>> PS:  Have heard some really interesting thinking from a major telco and
>>> the deployment of alternative wireless solutions to help with this type
>>> of event and future ones.
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net
>>> [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Skeeve Stevens
>>> Sent: Saturday, 3 September 2011 8:44 PM
>>> To: 'ausnog at ausnog.net'
>>> Subject: [AusNOG] iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?
>>> 
>>> Hey all,
>>> 
>>> I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on
>>> the Internet.
>>> 
>>> My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL,
>>> Cable, wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene
>>> amounts of gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and
>>> so on to their data centres.
>>> 
>>> Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do
>>> DropBox, but from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this
>>> might be a 'bad thing'.
>>> 
>>> 
>> > From what I can see there are some key issues:
>>> *	Users with plans that count upload and download together.
>>> *	The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
>>> *	The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
>>> *	The design of some transit metrics
>>> 
>>> So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider
>>> could have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections slowed
>>> because of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps, slowing
>>> down the backhaul segment of the network, and as residential providers
>>> are mostly download, some purchase transit from their upstreams in an
>>> symmetric fashion.
>>> 
>>> This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there is
>>> anything to actually worry about, or there are other implications that
>>> I've not really thought of yet.
>>> 
>>> 
>>> ...Skeeve