[AusNOG] NBN: "i want a pony! but can I afford it"

[Paul Brooks]

On 14/08/2010 10:05 AM, Tim McCullagh wrote:
> ----- Original Message -----
>
>     *From:* PRK <mailto:ausnog at digitaljunkie.net>
>     **
>     *PRK wrote:*
>     *"Where does your assumption, that replacing Telstra's copper with
>     NBNCo fibre reduces competition, come from?"*
>     **
>     **
>     **
>
>     *
>
>     *
>     *Your kidding aren't you.*
>     *If you have 3 fixed networks currently and all the IP traffic
>     from them is going to be moved to NBN (monopoly PMG style network)
>     and the copper is to be shutdown then where is the competition
>     going to come from?*
>
You need to look at the wholesale/retail split to see the big picture.

People connected to two of those fixed networks have only one single 
service provider - they have no competitive options, other than to 
switch to the third access network. Those service providers on the cable 
networks are also available on the copper network, so in reality two of 
those three sets of physical infrastructure provide no significant extra 
retail competion at all compared to just having the copper network. They 
provide some options for achieving higher performance, but not competition.

So...with the current network, we have 500-odd retail ISPs that can use 
the copper network to reach their customers, with maximum ever possible 
performance of 24/1 in some areas, 8/1 in other areas, and each copper 
line can support only one single broadband service provider.
With the NBN, we'll have 500-odd retail ISPs that can use the fibre 
network to reach their customers, with maximum performance of 100+/50+, 
and each fibre line can support several simultaneous broadband service 
providers.

Thats were the competition will come from - in theory.

My main concern is not actually the NBN access network portion. My main 
concern is that most of the smaller ISPs won't have engaged with NBNCo 
and set up wholesale access arrangements, and set up network backhaul 
links to the POIs as they are established, and will lose the customers 
they currently have as their customers transfer to the fibre access 
network, and are forced to choose another ISP because their current 
provider isn't available. The ISPs that engage early with NBNCo will 
pick up market share from those that don't, progressively as the fibre 
network is deployed.


>     *  You won't be able to have adsl because the copper won't be
>     available*
>
Tim, I'm really trying to understand your arguments, because I think you 
make some very valid points. This one, I can't understand the problem - 
I think three very different things are being confused - the physical 
layer (copper vs fibre), the technology using the physical layer 
(ADSL/ADSL2+/SHDSL etc on copper vs EPON/GPON/Point-to-point/etc over 
fibre) and the availability of retail sevice providers using each of the 
technologies.

If the copper is not available, you can't have ADSL - thats self 
evident. If ADSL over copper is not available then GPON over fibre will 
be available - with better performance - so I can't see what the problem 
is. The same service providers can be available over both, so?


>     *I suggest you read the 25million NBN report recommendations and
>     other articles in the public domain about what is being
>     proposed.   I would also suggest that quiet a lot of people that
>     think they are going to get fibre may be disappointed and in some
>     cases may end up with a 12MB service of sat or maybe wireless.  
>     Mostly in regional areas or city fringe areas.
>     *
>
(Bearing in mind that we don't know which of the recommendations in that 
report will be adopted, and which will be rejected- apart from the one 
recommendation to go from 90% to 93% on fibre. Just because something is 
in that report doesn't mean it will come to pass.)

Thats true - but quite a lot of those people that might get a 12M 
wireless service are the ones that can only get <5M on DSL, or nothing 
at all, and quite a lot of those people that get a 12M wireless or sat 
service are the ones that can't get anything but a lower speed sat 
service now. Thats kinda the point.

Lets turn your argument around - are you suggesting that there is a 
segment of the population that will be forced to receive a lower 
performance technology than they currently can access? That there are 
people on DSL or cable getting more than 12M now, that will be forced to 
change to a lower speed technology?
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