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On 14/08/2010 10:05 AM, Tim McCullagh wrote:
<blockquote cite="mid:00c901cb3b44$5a529e90$6500a8c0@hal" type="cite">
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<div>----- Original Message ----- </div>
<blockquote
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<div
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<a moz-do-not-send="true" title="ausnog@digitaljunkie.net"
href="mailto:ausnog@digitaljunkie.net">PRK</a> </div>
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<div
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wrote:</strong></div>
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<div class="gmail_quote">
<div><strong>"Where does your assumption, that replacing Telstra's
copper with NBNCo fibre reduces competition, come from?"</strong></div>
<strong></strong></div>
<strong></strong></div>
<strong></strong></blockquote>
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</div>
</strong>
<div class="gmail_quote"
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size="2" face="Arial"><strong>Your kidding aren't you.</strong></font></div>
<div class="gmail_quote"
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size="2" face="Arial"><strong>If you have 3 fixed networks currently
and all the IP traffic from them is going to be moved to NBN (monopoly
PMG style network) and the copper is to be shutdown then where is the
competition going to come from?</strong></font></div>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
You need to look at the wholesale/retail split to see the big picture.<br>
<br>
People connected to two of those fixed networks have only one single
service provider - they have no competitive options, other than to
switch to the third access network. Those service providers on the
cable networks are also available on the copper network, so in reality
two of those three sets of physical infrastructure provide no
significant extra retail competion
at all compared to just having the copper network. They provide some
options for achieving higher performance, but not competition.<br>
<br>
So...with the current network, we have 500-odd retail ISPs that can use
the copper network to reach their customers, with maximum ever possible
performance of 24/1 in some areas, 8/1 in other areas, and each copper
line can support only one single broadband service provider.<br>
With the NBN, we'll have 500-odd retail ISPs that can use the fibre
network to reach their customers, with maximum performance of 100+/50+,
and each fibre line can support several simultaneous broadband service
providers.<br>
<br>
Thats were the competition will come from - in theory.<br>
<br>
My main concern is not actually the NBN access network portion. My main
concern is that most of the smaller ISPs won't have engaged with NBNCo
and set up wholesale access arrangements, and set up network backhaul
links to the POIs as they are established, and will lose the customers
they currently have as their customers transfer to the fibre access
network, and are forced to choose another ISP because their current
provider isn't available. The ISPs that engage early with NBNCo will
pick up market share from those that don't, progressively as the fibre
network is deployed.<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote cite="mid:00c901cb3b44$5a529e90$6500a8c0@hal" type="cite">
<blockquote
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<div class="gmail_quote"
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size="2" face="Arial"><strong> You won't be able to have adsl because
the copper won't be available</strong></font></div>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
Tim, I'm really trying to understand your arguments, because I think
you make some very valid points. This one, I can't understand the
problem - I think three very different things are being confused - the
physical layer (copper vs fibre), the technology using the physical
layer (ADSL/ADSL2+/SHDSL etc on copper vs EPON/GPON/Point-to-point/etc
over fibre) and the availability of retail sevice providers using each
of the technologies.<br>
<br>
If the copper is not available, you can't have ADSL - thats self
evident. If ADSL over copper is not available then GPON over fibre will
be available - with better performance - so I can't see what the
problem is. The same service providers can be available over both, so?<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote cite="mid:00c901cb3b44$5a529e90$6500a8c0@hal" type="cite">
<blockquote
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<div class="gmail_quote"
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<div class="gmail_quote"
style="background: rgb(228, 228, 228) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; font-family: arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 10pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none;"><strong><font
size="2" face="Arial">I suggest you read the 25million NBN report
recommendations and other articles in the public domain about what is
being proposed. I would also suggest that quiet a lot of people that
think they are going to get fibre may be disappointed and in some cases
may end up with a 12MB service of sat or maybe wireless. Mostly in
regional areas or city fringe areas.</font> <br>
</strong></div>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
(Bearing in mind that we don't know which of the recommendations in
that report will be adopted, and which will be rejected- apart from the
one recommendation to go from 90% to 93% on fibre. Just because
something is in that report doesn't mean it will come to pass.)<br>
<br>
Thats true - but quite a lot of those people that might get a 12M
wireless service are the ones that can only get <5M on DSL, or
nothing at all, and quite a lot of those people that get a 12M wireless
or sat service are the ones that can't get anything but a lower speed
sat service now. Thats kinda the point.<br>
<br>
Lets turn your argument around - are you suggesting that there is a
segment of the population that will be forced to receive a lower
performance technology than they currently can access? That there are
people on DSL or cable getting more than 12M now, that will be forced
to change to a lower speed technology?<br>
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