[AusNOG] Aust Govt will build National Broadband Network, no company will be awarded the tender.

[Martin Thygesen]

Quote
"Which is why a government NBN will not be able to deliver a commercial
return, which leads us to the question is $43,000,000,000 a wise
investment to cover 90% of the population of which 68% of the popuation
already has access to 12 MB or more. Does enough of the market require
semi trailers to go and do the grocery shopping and are they prepared to
pay for it, to justify buying everyone a semi trailer to go shopping."
 
I think your missing the point here, a FTTH network is intended to
develop new businesses like subscription based IPTV, general converged
networks, etc.
 
12Mbps to 68% of the population is not going to be sufficient, I've got
16Mbps CIR sync and it's almost impossible to get greater than 3 Mbps
worth of flows.
 
My figures on fully fledged IPTV is a bit vague, but I recall that 8Mbps
is require at least to run full HD with subscription services etc.
 
Regardless of what it could be used for now consider Moore's law, if the
requirements were say 10 Mbps now, in 20 years that would equate to 80+
Mbps.
 
There's no way DSL is ever going to keep up with that.
 
Sadly change comes to all industries and IT is the worst, for those
organisations building DSLAM networks, it must be a difficult decision
to risk capital return on that equipment, inside 5 years.
 
- Martin


________________________________

	From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net
[mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of lists
	Sent: Monday, 4 May 2009 9:08 AM
	To: ausnog at ausnog.net
	Subject: Re: [AusNOG] Aust Govt will build National Broadband
Network,no company will be awarded the tender.
	
	
	Hi All

		----- Original Message ----- 
		From: Paul Brooks <mailto:pbrooks-ausnog at layer10.com.au>

		To: Bevan Slattery
<mailto:Bevan.Slattery at staff.pipenetworks.com>  ; ausnog at ausnog.net 
		Sent: Tuesday, April 14, 2009 5:11 AM
		Subject: Re: [AusNOG] Aust Govt will build National
Broadband Network, no company will be awarded the tender.

		Bevan Slattery wrote: 

			Come on - let's do this right for a change,
because if anything the past
			5 years and three initiatives have proven,
Government DOESN'T know best.
			  

		He is absolutely 43,000,000,000+% correct.
		 

		Although sometimes government has to step in,
		 
		Absolutely correct
		 
		 
		Nearly three years on and only 170,000 homes subscribed
to FTTH at the end of 2008, of which 130,000 were cable customers,
according to figures published by Arcep on Tuesday. That is from an
addressable market of 550,000 homes passed within 20,500 apartment
buildings, the French regulator said.
		 
		Which is why a government NBN will not be able to
deliver a commercial return, which leads us to the question is
$43,000,000,000 a wise investment to cover 90% of the population of
which 68% of the popuation already has access to 12 MB or more. Does
enough of the market require semi trailers to go and do the grocery
shopping and are they prepared to pay for it, to justify buying everyone
a semi trailer to go shopping.
		 
		regards
		 
		Tim

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