[AusNOG] Aust Govt will build National Broadband Network, no company will be awarded the tender.

[Matthew Moyle-Croft]

On 14/04/2009, at 8:43 AM, lists wrote:
>
> It would be good to see debate focus on how a business case could be  
> put together, rather than snipping at what some say.  Personally I  
> can't see how a business case can be put together to build from  
> scratch.  I still remember the commindicos and one tels and others.   
> Great ides, but in the end they didn't work.  For mine, show me a  
> business plan and I will be converted.  A press release does not cut  
> it for me.
>
Whilst normally large scale modelling etc is left to expensive  
consulting firms etc, I think it might be worth trying to spend time  
building our own as an "open" model.   I'm sure it'll be an iterative  
thing - start with broad sweeping numbers and refine and we have the  
knowledge to build a reasonable one at some level.

Important things are to capture sensitivities, assumptions (what and  
from whom etc), as well as an alternate model that takes in anything  
the government says to try and "reverse engineer" what they say.

A simple and dumb spreadsheet to start with leads to some interesting  
graphs when you look at sensitivity to:

- take up rates (0-10m)
- cost of money and ROI
- size of build
- backhaul assumptions/costs/build
- %age underground/above ground
- %non-FTTP
- type of FTTP (pt-to-pt, PON style etc)
- aggregation sites - how many? where? what if I have or can buy  
backhaul (eg. from PIPE)?
- what happens when you build to x% of the population or say "x km  
from CBD of major cities etc".

We can start with really simple assumptions and just leave places to  
refine them.   But having graphs to show what's happening and why it  
will/won't work given certain assumptions or what assumptions we might  
want to make to get a working model I think is very valuable.

MMC
-- 
Matthew Moyle-Croft
Networks, Internode/Agile
Level 5, 162 Grenfell Street, Adelaide, SA 5000 Australia
Email: mmc at internode.com.au    Web: http://www.on.net
Direct: +61-8-8228-2909		     Mobile: +61-419-900-366
Reception: +61-8-8228-2999        Fax: +61-8-8235-6909

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