<html><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><br><div><div>On 14/04/2009, at 8:43 AM, lists wrote:</div><blockquote type="cite"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0; "><div bgcolor="#ffffff"><blockquote style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 5px; margin-left: 5px; border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: solid; margin-right: 0px; "><br><font face="Arial" color="#0000ff" size="2"></font></blockquote><blockquote style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 5px; margin-left: 5px; border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: solid; margin-right: 0px; "><font face="Arial" color="#0000ff" size="2">It would be good to see debate focus on how a business case could be put together, rather than snipping at what some say. Personally I can't see how a business case can be put together to build from scratch. I still remember the commindicos and one tels and others. Great ides, but in the end they didn't work. For mine, show me a business plan and I will be converted. A press release does not cut it for me.</font><div><br></div></blockquote></div></span></blockquote></div>Whilst normally large scale modelling etc is left to expensive consulting firms etc, I think it might be worth trying to spend time building our own as an "open" model. I'm sure it'll be an iterative thing - start with broad sweeping numbers and refine and we have the knowledge to build a reasonable one at some level.<div><br></div><div>Important things are to capture sensitivities, assumptions (what and from whom etc), as well as an alternate model that takes in anything the government says to try and "reverse engineer" what they say.</div><div><br></div><div>A simple and dumb spreadsheet to start with leads to some interesting graphs when you look at sensitivity to:</div><div><br></div><div>- take up rates (0-10m)</div><div>- cost of money and ROI</div><div>- size of build </div><div>- backhaul assumptions/costs/build</div><div>- %age underground/above ground</div><div>- %non-FTTP</div><div>- type of FTTP (pt-to-pt, PON style etc)</div><div>- aggregation sites - how many? where? what if I have or can buy backhaul (eg. from PIPE)?</div><div>- what happens when you build to x% of the population or say "x km from CBD of major cities etc".</div><div><br></div><div>We can start with really simple assumptions and just leave places to refine them. But having graphs to show what's happening and why it will/won't work given certain assumptions or what assumptions we might want to make to get a working model I think is very valuable.</div><div><br></div><div>MMC</div><div><div><div apple-content-edited="true"> <span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div>-- <br>Matthew Moyle-Croft </div><div>Networks, Internode/Agile<br>Level 5, 162 Grenfell Street, Adelaide, SA 5000 Australia<br>Email: <a href="mailto:mmc@internode.com.au">mmc@internode.com.au</a> Web: <a href="http://www.on.net/">http://www.on.net</a><br>Direct: +61-8-8228-2909<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre; "> </span> Mobile: +61-419-900-366<br>Reception: +61-8-8228-2999 Fax: +61-8-8235-6909<br></div></div></span></div></span></div></span> </div><br></div></div></body></html>