[AusNOG] ALERT: Aust Govt will build National Broadband Network, no company will be awarded the tender.

[gregm at servu.net.au]

Don't forget about businesses that currently rely on other services who
will use that too.

There must be tens of thousands of businesses/premesis currently using
xDSL infrastructure or other who will be benefited by this also, which
will most likely pay alot more than the $50 per month, given that the cost
of providing that 100mbps service will be no more than a home user (with
the exception of obvious overheads such as business grade support, Golf
and AFL outingings etc) I think this is going to be where they actually
make a reasonable return.

Wether this will offset your points below about the likely low takeup of
residential services due to higher pricing is anyone's guess.

Anyone got access to a time machine? May I suggest 2017?

Greg

> Hi All,
>
> I don't like to be a wet blanket however personally I don't see how this
> can
> be based on a viable business model.
>
> $43, 000 million is $2000 per Australian  ouch.  It would be to depressing
> to dived the number by the number of tax payers
>
> using rounded figures there are about 10 million homes
> =  4300 per home investment
> assuming ever house 1. uses the internet and 2. takes up the service and
> 3.
> a 40 year payback period with a  7.5% return (very long given the
> electronics will have a lifespan of 10 or so years) then the business will
> need to charge at least $28.30 ex to pay for the investment. plus add
> running costs margin etc etc.  So I guess there will not be any change out
> of $40.
>
> The above is so totally unrealistic
> It is more likely the internet penetration is around 50% of which x% will
> want a fixed connection.  So best case is the monthly fee will need to be
> twice the $28.30 at least = 56.50 + GST.   How many customers want to pay
> $80 to $100 per month for broadband? If there is not a large take up the
> figures simply get worse
>
> of the 50% some will use mobile broadband
>
> All this equalls a bad investment.   There should be more emphasis on
> filling black spots were there is a need/demand than wasting money
> duplicating existing infrastructure.  While some may believe it will bring
> Telstra to heal I doubt it.  This could end up being a white elephant,
> especially if Telstra decides to build FTTH and other retail operators
> decide to build out there own networks.  Then there is the issue of what
> it
> will do to the business models of companies that have deployed ADSL 2+
> dslams.  What a financial mess, perhaps sanity will prevail. Perhaps the
> government will buy back all the Telstra shares and restructure it to what
> they want.  Who knows?  This decision seems rushed and ill thought out
>
> Regards
>
> Tim
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dominic Driver" <Dominic at networkhardware.com>
> To: "Luke Connolly" <luke at sisgroup.com.au>; <ausnog at ausnog.net>
> Sent: Tuesday, April 07, 2009 7:23 PM
> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] ALERT: Aust Govt will build National Broadband
> Network,no company will be awarded the tender.
>
>
> Hi all - enjoying the debate!  That put the cat amongst the pigeons :)
>
> Couple of points that caught my [layman's] eye:
> http://www.minister.dbcde.gov.au/media/media_releases/2009/022
>
> "ownership restrictions will be established to protect the Government's
> objective of a wholesale open-access network" - nuff said!
>
> "Fast-track negotiations with the Tasmanian Government" - they seem to be
> the Guinea pigs
>
> "...necessary changes to the existing telecommunications regulatory
> regime..." - how far will that go and what affect on TLS..?
>
>
> BTW - did anyone see this coming?
>
>> Dominic <
> NHR Singapore
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net
> [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Luke Connolly
> Sent: Tuesday, April 07, 2009 6:48 AM
> To: ausnog at ausnog.net
> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] ALERT: Aust Govt will build National Broadband
> Network,no company will be awarded the tender.
>
> http://www.dbcde.gov.au/communications_for_business/funding_programs__and__support/national_broadband_network
>
>
>
> On 07/04/2009, at 8:47 AM, Darren Moss wrote:
>
>> SkyNews right now.
>>
>> Regards,
>>
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