[AusNOG] ALERT: Aust Govt will build National Broadband Network, no company will be awarded the tender.

[lists]

Hi All,

I don't like to be a wet blanket however personally I don't see how this can 
be based on a viable business model.

$43, 000 million is $2000 per Australian  ouch.  It would be to depressing 
to dived the number by the number of tax payers

using rounded figures there are about 10 million homes
=  4300 per home investment
assuming ever house 1. uses the internet and 2. takes up the service and 3. 
a 40 year payback period with a  7.5% return (very long given the 
electronics will have a lifespan of 10 or so years) then the business will 
need to charge at least $28.30 ex to pay for the investment. plus add 
running costs margin etc etc.  So I guess there will not be any change out 
of $40.

The above is so totally unrealistic
It is more likely the internet penetration is around 50% of which x% will 
want a fixed connection.  So best case is the monthly fee will need to be 
twice the $28.30 at least = 56.50 + GST.   How many customers want to pay 
$80 to $100 per month for broadband? If there is not a large take up the 
figures simply get worse

of the 50% some will use mobile broadband

All this equalls a bad investment.   There should be more emphasis on 
filling black spots were there is a need/demand than wasting money 
duplicating existing infrastructure.  While some may believe it will bring 
Telstra to heal I doubt it.  This could end up being a white elephant, 
especially if Telstra decides to build FTTH and other retail operators 
decide to build out there own networks.  Then there is the issue of what it 
will do to the business models of companies that have deployed ADSL 2+ 
dslams.  What a financial mess, perhaps sanity will prevail. Perhaps the 
government will buy back all the Telstra shares and restructure it to what 
they want.  Who knows?  This decision seems rushed and ill thought out

Regards

Tim


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Dominic Driver" <Dominic at networkhardware.com>
To: "Luke Connolly" <luke at sisgroup.com.au>; <ausnog at ausnog.net>
Sent: Tuesday, April 07, 2009 7:23 PM
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] ALERT: Aust Govt will build National Broadband 
Network,no company will be awarded the tender.


Hi all - enjoying the debate!  That put the cat amongst the pigeons :)

Couple of points that caught my [layman's] eye:
http://www.minister.dbcde.gov.au/media/media_releases/2009/022

"ownership restrictions will be established to protect the Government's 
objective of a wholesale open-access network" - nuff said!

"Fast-track negotiations with the Tasmanian Government" - they seem to be 
the Guinea pigs

"...necessary changes to the existing telecommunications regulatory 
regime..." - how far will that go and what affect on TLS..?


BTW - did anyone see this coming?

> Dominic <
NHR Singapore

-----Original Message-----
From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net 
[mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Luke Connolly
Sent: Tuesday, April 07, 2009 6:48 AM
To: ausnog at ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] ALERT: Aust Govt will build National Broadband 
Network,no company will be awarded the tender.

http://www.dbcde.gov.au/communications_for_business/funding_programs__and__support/national_broadband_network



On 07/04/2009, at 8:47 AM, Darren Moss wrote:

> SkyNews right now.
>
> Regards,
>
_______________________________________________
AusNOG mailing list
AusNOG at lists.ausnog.net
http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog
_______________________________________________
AusNOG mailing list
AusNOG at lists.ausnog.net
http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog