[AusNOG] NBN’s $800 million Optus network might need to be rebuilt

Thu Nov 26 12:21:46 EST 2015

“Did Australia really vote for this?”

No…many Australian’s voted for a $43 billion pipe dream and thought bubble dreamed up by a couple of idiots wanting to buy votes, and which would of cost $200+ billion and taken until 2030 or 2040 without putting 100,000 person work force in place if left to the original plan.

From: AusNOG [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Greg Anderson
Sent: Thursday, 26 November 2015 11:25 AM
To: John Edwards
Cc: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] NBN’s $800 million Optus network might need to be rebuilt

What devices would you need to operate with electricity on a passive optical network?  The distinct lack of need for any electronic devices in the street is surely one of it's strong points?

They could string GPON in the air along power poles as well, but it is hideous and requires more maintenance in the long run and it seemed to irk a lot of people.  But it would be cheaper to put in and string

Seems to me that we are now paying almost as much for a network that is going to last about 10 years before needing significant upgrades at a higher ongoing maintenance cost versus a slightly more expensive but much more reliable, network (with faster and most importantly more consistent speeds) that is likely to last 30-50 years with upgrades that are likely to be less significant with lower maintenance costs.

I must just be a fanboi, because I just don't think I will ever 'get' what we are being given.  Like, even if I WANT fibre, I won't be able to get that speed because the cherry picking laws are going to prevent competing companies installing it.  It seems in on fell swoop, the government has said "Nobody gets Fibre."

My mind boggles.  Did Australia really vote for this?

On 26 November 2015 at 09:03, John Edwards <jaedwards at gmail.com<mailto:jaedwards at gmail.com>> wrote:
Australian Cable TV installers in 2013 were paid around $100 to run a drop cable from the pole to the premises AND install it to the STB in the lounge room. There's even a Facebook page about how little they were paid. 10 years ago it was as low as $45, and they had to supply materials. Compare that to cost-per-premises run rates for FTTH.

One of the benefits that isn't well known about HFC is that it can also provide power to devices. Current AEMO rules make it difficult to attempt to run simple devices from AC power in the street. In a world where Smart City and IOT is a thing, copper connections may well have a revival as they are re-used to put battery-less sensors anywhere and everywhere.

John

On 26 November 2015 at 07:49, Skeeve Stevens <skeeve+ausnog at theispguy.com<mailto:skeeve+ausnog at theispguy.com>> wrote:
But... one of the things I've always said about HFC... the cost is in getting from the Pole to the Premises.  Everything else is easily upgradable.  So, in hindsight, as NBN I still would have bought it, just maybe paid a lot less.

...Skeeve

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On Thu, Nov 26, 2015 at 6:14 AM, Robert Hudson <hudrob at gmail.com<mailto:hudrob at gmail.com>> wrote:

Those were my thoughts exactly Skeeve. The Optus HFC network has been in a disgraceful state for years, and anyone who's had any involvement with it knew that.

Great to see that NBN did the appropriate levels of due dilligence before handing over so much money...
On 26 Nov 2015 12:38 am, "Skeeve Stevens" <skeeve+ausnog at theispguy.com<mailto:skeeve%2Bausnog at theispguy.com>> wrote:
They could have just asked us... we would have told them how bad it was.

...Skeeve

From: http://www.news.com.au/technology/online/nbn/nbns-800-million-optus-network-might-need-to-be-rebuilt/news-story/058b1a409439b2d0b797bda37aec4ed7

===
MALCOLM Turnbull and the NBN have spent $800 million on a network that almost completely needs to be rebuilt.

As part of the Coalition government’s multi-technology National Broadband Network, the government bought Optus’s ageing hybrid fibre-coaxial (HFC) cable network, which was originally rolled out in the 1990s for pay TV, for $800 million.

But leaked documents obtained by Fairfax Mediareveal the government is planning to replace that $800 million network at a cost of an extra $375 million.

The documents claim that the Optus HFC network is “not fit for purpose” and nearing the end of its life, while other parts of it are simply already oversubscribed and wouldn’t be able to deliver on the speeds promised by Mr Turnbull and his government.

These new plans would see the Optus network rebuilt with either Telstra’s HFC or fibre-to-the-node technology, which was originally planned for 38 per cent of the network. On top of the huge cost blowout, which is already expected to be $15 billion over budget, the NBN will be missing the rollout targets of 633,000 premises in 2017 and 2018, which will now have to wait until 2019 at the earliest to be connected.

An initial agreement was made between the NBN and Optus in 2012, where it was approved by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission under the grounds that the government could gradually decommission Optus’s HFC and replace it with fibre-to-the-premises broadband connections.

The existing network needed upgrades and it was deemed commercially unviable for Optus to do that work and maintain it.

Despite this, the deal was revised in 2015 the government would keep Optus’s HFC network in use and make upgrades where needed for the same $800 million price tag.

Opposition communications spokesman Jason Clare slammed the findings of the document, saying it showed “more evidence of the absolute mess that Malcolm Turnbull has created with his second-rate NBN”.

“It reveals that the Optus HFC network, a key component of Malcolm Turnbull’s second-rate NBN, is in far worse condition than Australians were led to believe and NBN Co is considering overbuilding the network — costing hundreds of millions and meaning hundreds of thousands of Australians will have to wait longer to get the NBN,” Mr Clare said.

Optus said that it always acknowledged the HFC network needed major investment to manage subscriber growth and capacity demand.

A statement from NBN Co said the corporate plan had accounted for the ebbs and flows of the project.

“NBN has met or exceeded all targets over the past 18 months and we remain confident in our long range plan and the various strategies we have in place to manage the risk,” the statement said.

“Nearly 1.5 million homes and businesses can now order an NBN service and nearly 700,000 are connected.

“In order to manage risk NBN regularly prepares for multiple scenarios in the network deployment — the document concerned is part of that ongoing approach of risk mitigation.”

“Our corporate plan has accounted for the ebbs and flows expected in a project of this scale.

“NBN has met or exceeded all targets over the past 18 months and we remain confident in our long range plan and the various strategies we have in place to manage the risk.

“Nearly 1.5 million homes and businesses can now order an nbn service and nearly 700,000 are connected. In order to manage risk, NBN regularly prepares for multiple scenarios in the network deployment - the document concerned is part of that ongoing approach of risk mitigation.”

===

...Skeeve

--

Skeeve Stevens - The ISP Guy - Internet Provider SME

Email: skeeve at theispguy.com<mailto:skeeve at theispguy.com> ; Cell: +61(0)414 753 383<tel:%2B61%280%29414%20753%20383>
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