[AusNOG] Telstra run out of IPv4 - goes CGNAT

[Mark Andrews]

In message <1427192840.2749.136.camel at karl>, Karl Auer writes:
> On Tue, 2015-03-24 at 15:20 +1100, Beeson, Ayden wrote:
> > It seems most of our bigger ISPs are (at least publicly) in the
> > second camp, where they would rather deploy CGNAT, gain the short term
> > benefits and then drag everybody else down rather than progressing
> > their v6 rollouts while doing CGNAT where absolutely necessary..
> 
> <rant>
> 
> No shareholder-run business will ever voluntarily go downhill, not even
> to reach a higher peak on the other side of the valley.
> 
> Customers, the people paying the money that keeps ISPs alive, simply do
> not give a shit whether "thuh Innernet" is delivered over IPv4, IPv6, or
> on hand-inscribed sheep pellets. As long as customers do not care ISPs
> will not embrace IPv6. They will continue to change reactively, and only
> ever by thinking inside the box. Outside the box is an unknown risk.
> Known risks are far, far preferable, and pretty much all the risks of
> IPv4 and NAT, including CGNAT, are well-known.

The fixed line customers are not behind CGNAT yet.  They can still
port forward.  They can still run servers if they want to.  There
is no expectation of being able to do that by mobile customers.

> And the problems happen largely *to the customers*. ISPs themselves are
> not impacted by most of the downsides of CGNAT, just as they are not
> impacted by the effects of CPE-based NAT. Only a problem that has
> customers leaving or phoning is a real problem. Nearly twenty years of
> CPE-based NAT have gotten customers so used to the lack of sky in their
> cave that if they were ever let out they wouldn't even look up. They
> aren't aren't leaving and they aren't phoning - so there is no problem.

They aren't leaving yet because there are very few IPv6 only
destinations that they need to get to however as more fixed line
customers move behind CGNAT back to home services become more
difficult.

Additionally those that know about IPv6 just configure tunnels
having given up complaining about the lack of IPv6 support.

> The only problem that IPv4 address scarcity has brought to ISPs
> themselves is the problem of not being able to add customers, and that
> can be dealt with by buying a box. They are used to buying boxes.
> 
> </rant>
> 
> Regards, K.
> 
> -- 
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Karl Auer (kauer at biplane.com.au)
> http://www.biplane.com.au/kauer
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-- 
Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka at isc.org