[AusNOG] Simon Hackett's slide deck from AusNOG 2014 with added audio

[Narelle]

I'm not going to enter into the discussion about the quality of advice
received by the previous minister's office, except to say that some of it
did actually come from people who do run networks. I do, however, point you
to the various deep research efforts also going on in bandwidth forecasting.

Eg:
http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/VNI_Hyperconnectivity_WP.html

Of course, CIsco do have a heavy vested interest in over-forecasting.

As do Alcatel, so of course their result is similar:
http://www.alcatel-lucent.com/press/2013/002957

So they *would* say that people will need bucketloads of bandwidth in the
future.

I know of a massive project in India to roll out FTTH and then there's
Verizon, Comcast and various European telcos...

One way or another it will be needed eventually - it's all just a question
of when the market, regulatory and other forces combine to make it a
reality.


Anyone wanting to hear the official line for consumers and the NBN should
come along to the ACCAN National Conference next week:
http://accan.org.au/2014conference

regards


Narelle Clark
[disclaimer - yes I have a day job at ACCAN]


On Wed, Sep 10, 2014 at 5:43 PM, Paul Jones <paul at pauljones.id.au> wrote:

>  That’s a nice logical argument, but do you have any evidence to support
> it? We’ve had a saturated ADSL market now for a few years, but I still
> can’t see any evidence of slowing usage. Or rather, the rate of increase
> doesn’t seem to be slowing. Personally my guess was that it would slow 50%
> or so, but I appear to be wrong. Which I guess means I forfit the right to
> ever run an ISP J
>
>
>
>
>
> Paul.
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* AusNOG [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] *On Behalf Of *Paul
> Wallace
> *Sent:* Wednesday, 10 September 2014 12:44 PM
> *To:* Darren Moss
> *Cc:* ausnog at lists.ausnog.net
> *Subject:* Re: [AusNOG] Simon Hackett's slide deck from AusNOG 2014 with
> added audio
>
>
>
> Yes .. that was the line Stephen Conroy pushed!
>
>
>
> Made in the total absence of any proper technical advice.
>
>
>
> Made by way of pure guesswork.
>
>
>
> The line is based upon the flawed assertion that, due to history only ever
> showing a demand for more and more fixed line bandwidth then the future
> must demand, inexorably, not only more of the same but also via a
> continuation of the logarithmically  upwards shape to the demand curve!
>
>
>
> It was only ever convenient political spin.
>
>
>
> You could see that from the beginning after Conroy slagged HFC, a service
> (that the CIO of the largest cable co on earth told me last week) will
> reach 1Gb via docsis 3.1!
>
>
>
> Sadly these sorts of shenanigans should be expected when the politicians
> enter the business world .. long after the business world is established.
>
>
>
> -P
>



-- 


Narelle
narellec at gmail.com
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