[AusNOG] Screw the NBN, says TPG: We'll do our own FTTB

Mark ZZZ Smith markzzzsmith at yahoo.com.au
Tue Sep 17 21:31:13 EST 2013






>________________________________
> From: Robert Hudson <hudrob at gmail.com>
>To: Tim McCullagh <technical at halenet.com.au> 
>Cc: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net 
>Sent: Tuesday, 17 September 2013 8:49 PM
>Subject: Re: [AusNOG] Screw the NBN, says TPG: We'll do our own FTTB
> 
>
>
>To be clear - I don't disagree that the execution has been terrible. It has been.
>But that isn't to say that FTTP as a notion is broken. It is not.
>And it can't be said that FTTN is the automatic solution to the poor execution of the FTTP. There is nothing to stop a FTTN implementation being just as messed up,  and in fact it is potentially easier to mess up with the range of options that it presents (some FTTP, some VDSL, some wireless, some good copper, some bad copper, etc).
>Whatis a fact is that our copper network, and the "last-mile" in particular is an absolute mess - ISPs have screamed at Telstra about it for years, Telstra themselves recently admitted that it is grossly undermaintained.

I think that is debatable. I've worked at a few of those ISPs over the last 5 years (with total broadband subscribers of around 250K), and I don't remember screaming and panic about the copper network being an "absolute mess". If the copper network is so bad, why are there literally millions of happy ADSL broadband customers? (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/8153.0~December+2012~Chapter~Type+of+access+connection?OpenDocument)

I've also had ADSL since 2002 in four different properties, including one 50 meters from the exchange, and another where I was on the boundary of an exchange area, because the house next door was on a different one. In all those years I've only had one local loop failure, and that ended up being inside the roof of the house, not in the street.

I'd argue the copper network is probably in better condition than it was 15 years ago. 15 years ago, all it had to carry was voice calls. Now, it also carries millions of ADSL broadband services, and when a subscriber's local loop failed, or wasn't up to a reasonable standard, the loop was fixed or swapped, at their ISP's expense. 

This is not to say it won't need to have better maintenance, or be improved to support the Liberal NBN, but I don't think it is approaching catastrophic failure, as pro- FTTH people like to imply, otherwise the Telstra would already be replacing it at their own expense.



>What I am yet to see is any solid figures on what the annual cost of maintaining the last mile copper to a reasonable level would actually be. Nor have I seen any estimate on how much it will take to bring large parts of the copper network up to standard, and how that compares to just scrapping it and replacing it with fibre to start with.
>And I am yet to see any details on the the "mid-term" option to run with FTTN now and "upgrade" to FTTP later (I use inverted commas because as far as I have seen, it is a forklift job, not an upgrade in the traditional sense).
>What we have seen are sensible ideas for how the cost and complexity of a FTTP network build can be reduced, and how this would potentially also speed up the roll-out. Given that cost, complexity and speed of roll-out are the biggest things that people complain about with the ALPs FTTP rollout, surely those should be the first things considered, before we throw the baby out with the bathwater?
>On 17/09/2013 7:17 PM, "Tim McCullagh" <technical at halenet.com.au> wrote:
>
> 
>>"The NBNs price 
model is, amongst other things, dependant on scale"
>> 
>>I would suggest the pricing is more dependant on 
the cost of deployment ( and a 6% return on the build cost) and given the 
absolute balls up of a roll out the cost is currently probably double the cost 
which a suitably qualified telco network engineer would have spent.   
I have been watching the absolute waste going on in Toowoomba, with much 
amazement.  I imaging it is the same else where.  
>> 
>>This was all forseeable and in fact I personally 
told Conroy to his face what the issues would be, and I have seen one of those 
exact situation play out. In particular the lack of suitably skilled people 
to perform such a roll out.   If conroy was smart he would have 
employed a Don pernel, mic rocca or Kennedy  type to head up 
NBNco.  Instead he employed a sales engineer.  
>> 
>>This is going to end up being a very expensive 
rollout for which we will all pay, but I think I did mention that to this list 
at the start, only to be howled down.   Time to jump back into my 
box
>> 
>> 
>>Regards
>> 
>>Tim
>> 
>>
>>----- Original Message ----- 
>>>From: Robert Hudson 
>>>To: Tom Lanyon 
>>>Cc: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net 
>>>Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2013 6:55  PM
>>>Subject: Re: [AusNOG]Screw the NBN, says  TPG: We’ll do our own FTTB
>>>
>>>
>>>Of course it has an impact on the NBN. The NBNs price model is,  amongst other things, dependant on scale and the number of premises connected.  Reduce that number by a few million, and the per-port price will rise  significantly, and those in less profitable areas ("the bush" as an example),  won't have their pricing subsidised by the commercially lucrative connections  (in "the city)".
>>>On 17/09/2013 6:47 PM, "Tom Lanyon" <tom+ausnog at oneshoeco.com>  wrote:
>>>
>>>On  17/09/2013, at 6:09 PM, Jake Anderson <yahoo at vapourforge.com>  wrote:
>>>>> On 17/09/2013, at 5:14 PM, Nick Gale <nickgale at gmail.com>  wrote:
>>>>>> Are you saying we should have the ability for NBN 
    competitors? If so why?
>>>>>
>>>>> Because if you don't then private 
    enterprise will build a bunch of little fiefdoms where it will be 
    uneconomical for anybody else to try to take market share with diminishing 
    returns, and as a bonus all those areas in "the bush"       
    that the population as a whole is rather fond of won't get any services at 
    all because its not "economic" to do so.
>>>>
>>>>None of which would be an 
    issue, assuming that this is all occurring in parallel to the NBN, 
    right?
>>>>
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