[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

[Paul Brooks]

On 16/03/2012 1:28 PM, Scott Howard wrote:
> On Thu, Mar 15, 2012 at 7:05 PM, Paul Brooks <pbrooks-ausnog at layer10.com.au
> <mailto:pbrooks-ausnog at layer10.com.au>> wrote:
>
>     6to4 tunnels don't need manual config.
>
>
> 6to4 tunnels also aren't really "tunnels" in the true sense of the word.  The
> gateway where the traffic exits the "tunnel" will often be different to the one
> where it re-enters the "tunnel". In reality, 6to4 is really an encapsulation
> mechanism, not a tunnel.
>
> The figures from HE almost certainly count explicitly configured tunnels only, not
> 6to4. (Based both on the context on their website as well as the numbers)

Which means the HE figures are conservative, and there are likely to be a whole pile
more people using mechanisms like 6to4 above and beyond the real tunnel figures.
I don't care if its not really a tunnel, and most end-users won't either. I plug it
in, power it up, and 20 seconds later my entire household is IPv6 enabled while I shut
the the cupboard door and move on.
Thats the way IPv6 enablement is *supposed* to be.

Yes, unfortunately Optus doesn't peer locally, so my topologically closest 6to4
gateway (well-known-anycast address 192.88.99.1) is HE, even though PIPE run one locally:

>tracert 192.88.99.1

Tracing route to 192.88.99.1 over a maximum of 30 hops

  1    <1 ms    <1 ms    <1 ms  192.168.0.1
  2    27 ms    14 ms    19 ms  10.85.0.1
  3     8 ms    13 ms    10 ms  sbr5-ge2-1-4.gw.optusnet.com.au [198.142.163.61]
  4     7 ms    11 ms     7 ms  sbr3-ge14-0.gw.optusnet.com.au [211.29.126.9]
  5   165 ms   165 ms   187 ms  203.208.191.61
  6   165 ms   171 ms   174 ms  paix.he.net [198.32.176.20]
  7   176 ms   175 ms   167 ms  192.88.99.1

Trace complete.

It would be completely awesome if a few other providers set up 6to4 gateways in-country!


and for Julian, because its Friday:

> 6to4 tunnels don't need manual setup.
>
> A consumer-level Netgear N600 (WNDR3700), firmware V1.0.16.98, IPv6 WAN mode set to
> 'Auto Detect'.
>
> http://www.netgear.com/service-provider/products/routers-and-gateways/gigabit-ethernet-routers-gateways/WNDR3700.aspx
>
> Not exactly bleeding edge - reviews date back to 2009.
>
> After failing to detect native IPv6 (I'm on Optus HFC) it sets up a 6to4 tunnel
> automagically - and when it does, a traceroute shows the tunnel popping out in HE:
>
> router IPv6 page:
>
>     Internet Connection Type:  Auto-Detect
>     Connection Type:           6to4 Tunnel
>
>     Router's IPv6 Address On WAN
>     <javascript:loadhelp('_IPv6_auto','wan_ipaddr')>           2002:dcef:69e5::1/16
>     Router's IPv6 Address On LAN
>     <javascript:loadhelp('_IPv6_auto','lan_ipaddr')>          
>     2002:dcef:69e5:e472:c23f:eff:fe8d:7e40/64
>
>
>
> traceroute from my WinXP desktop (just to to simulate a typical end-user ;-) ) in
> Sydney.
>
>     >tracert -6 www.vocus.com.au
>
>     Tracing route to www.vocus.com.au [2402:7800:0:1302::2]
>     over a maximum of 30 hops:
>
>       1     1 ms    <1 ms    <1 ms  2002:dcef:69e5:e472:c23f:eff:fe8d:7e40
>       2   190 ms   165 ms   166 ms  2002:c058:6301::1
>       3   169 ms   177 ms   190 ms  gigabitethernet4-16.core1.pao1.he.net
>     [2001:470:0:13b::1]
>
>       4   179 ms   177 ms   203 ms  paix.bdr01.sjc01.ca.vocusconnect.net
>     [2001:504:d::86]
>       5   180 ms   185 ms   177 ms  pos-1-0-0.bdr01.sjc01.ca.VOCUS.net.au
>     [2402:7800:100:1::29]
>       6   178 ms   177 ms   181 ms  pos-0-0-1.cor01.syd03.nsw.vocusconnect.net.au
>     [2402:7800:0:1::81]
>
>     etc.
>
 

The point is, there is a stack of pent-up demand waiting for the last piece to go into
the jigsaw. Yes, the CPE vendors need to support it, the transit providers need to
route it, the ISPs need to provide it, and the content sites need to advertise it, and
without all of those things it won't happen.

But for those holding back - do you really want to wait until all the other pieces are
in place before you move, so that all the eyeballs are on you when you flick the
switch? Or would you rather get in place early, precisely when nothing much will
happen, and then gradually deal with the issues as they occur before it is supposed to
be in production and supported - and while all the other pieces fall into place, while
the attention is focussed on a bottleneck elsewhere.

if you are the last piece to go into the jigsaw, you'd damn well better fit perfectly
first time, 'cause everyone will be watching you.

Paul.

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