[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

[Matthew Moyle-Croft]

On 15/03/2012, at 12:27 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:

> 
> In message <97C647EF-B87F-4E7A-A51C-A975170AF4CC at mmc.com.au>, Matthew Moyle-Cro
> ft writes:
>> On 15/03/2012, at 11:00 AM, Darren Moss wrote:
>>> 
>>> Now.. if only IPv6 meant faster internet :)
>>> 
>> 
>> I suspect that in the future it will, even it it's because it'll avoid =
>> the CGNAT layers of suckage.
>> 
>> MMC
> 
> I doubt that CGNAT will make a measurable speed difference for
> 99.99% of applications.  Some will have to do additional negotiations
> to open up port and as the CGNAT is at the other end of the pipe
> that will take a little longer but not noticably.

A well run CGNAT maybe but I suspect that CGNAT will end up being a basket case quickly.   CGNAT requires all kinds of extra bits for Legal Intercept (ie you have to keep a lot of mappings etc).
I certainly don't look forward to it, but hey, I helped get IPv6 turned into production at $employer-1.  

> 
> That's one of the reasons the IETF has been pushing "try IPv6 first"
> as there will likely be no speed difference and it requires application
> bias to be able to see when you can turn off the expensive IPv4
> kludges.  If you selected the destination address family just on
> speed you would end up with a roughly 50/50 mix.

Indeed.  Unfortunately things like broken 6to4 tunnelling have meant happy eyeballs code to back that off a bit.

MMC

> 
> Mark
> -- 
> Mark Andrews, ISC
> 1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
> PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka at isc.org