[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

[Mark Andrews]

In message <3D393585A916FD4A96E9412D5E18CA6438429C78 at webapp65.exchange2007.myho
stedexchange.com.au>, Darren Moss writes:
> Hello Gents and Noggers,
> 
> Why is this change not handled like analogue to digital radio ?
> 
> Simulcast on both for testing, then once the uptake is there, shutdown the =
> old network.

It is, it's called the "dual stack migration strategy".

The trouble is that ISP, with a few exceptions, have been "jamming"
the digital frequencies by not providing IPv6 connectivity.  So it
doesn't matter what the broadcasters or receivers do.

Some talented "HAMs" get around this by sending the digital signal
over the analog band (6to4/6in4) but this is not for everyone.

Note many receivers are digital capable but are just waiting for
the jamming to be stopped and for broadcasters to turn their digital
transmitters on.

Mark

> Surely the benefits of obtaining IPv6 ranges -vs- no more IPv4 ranges would=
>  be a big draw card for mediums and corporates, which then paves the way fo=
> r consumers to get onboard.
> 
> Now.. if only IPv6 meant faster internet :)
> 
> Regards,=20
> =20
> =20
> Darren.
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.n=
> et] On Behalf Of Mark Andrews
> Sent: Thursday, 15 March 2012 11:24 AM
> To: Mark Delany
> Cc: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net
> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry
> 
> 
> In message <20120315000436.39820.qmail at f5-external.bushwire.net>, "Mark Del=
> any"
>  writes:
> > On 14Mar12, Leo Vegoda allegedly wrote:
> >=20
> > > > You need to explain why a business would voluntarily stop=20
> > > > listening to
> > > > IPv4 traffic and why ISPs would stop carrying it.
> > >=20
> >=20
> > > I can't tell you the decade but I would have thought the decision=20
> > > for a commercial organisation would be relatively simple. If it=20
> > > costs more money to maintain an IPv4 service than is made by its=20
> > > presence then commercial organisations would be motivated to remove=20
> > > the IPv4 service. After all, they're in business to make profits.
> >=20
> > True of course. Though if folk have to run dual stack for a number of=20
> > years, would you expect the maintenance burden to be very high?
> >=20
> > Quite possibly the opportunity cost of v4 addresses may become the=20
> > dominant economic factor in the earlier years. But at some point that=20
> > market will start to decline pretty rapidly.
> >=20
> >=20
> > One cost that isn't talked about much is the transition for=20
> > application s/w and databases. While there is plenty of evidence that=20
> > stacks and routers are good at v6 support these days, I wonder about=20
> > the state of network related applications written over the last 15=20
> > years or so.
> >=20
> > E.g, how much running code blithely copies gethostbyname() responses=20
> > with an int32? Or assumes that the string representation in a database=20
> > is <=3D 15 bytes?  Or uses a hand-written dotted quad config parser?
> >=20
> > Sure it's bad programming, but there are a lot of bad programmers.
> >=20
> > What worries me most about these is that if their service provider or=20
> > IT dept. helpfully shields them behind 6to4s then they're going to get=20
> > a nasty shock very late in the day when they finally come out of=20
> > hiding.
> 
> Which is why many of us have been saying for years.  Turn IPv6 on and test =
> everything.
> =20
> > Mark.
> > _______________________________________________
> > AusNOG mailing list
> > AusNOG at lists.ausnog.net
> > http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog
> --
> Mark Andrews, ISC
> 1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
> PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka at isc.org
> _______________________________________________
> AusNOG mailing list
> AusNOG at lists.ausnog.net
> http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog
-- 
Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka at isc.org