[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

[Darren Moss]

Hello Gents and Noggers,

Why is this change not handled like analogue to digital radio ?

Simulcast on both for testing, then once the uptake is there, shutdown the old network.

Surely the benefits of obtaining IPv6 ranges -vs- no more IPv4 ranges would be a big draw card for mediums and corporates, which then paves the way for consumers to get onboard.

Now.. if only IPv6 meant faster internet :)

Regards, 
 
 
Darren.


-----Original Message-----
From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Mark Andrews
Sent: Thursday, 15 March 2012 11:24 AM
To: Mark Delany
Cc: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry


In message <20120315000436.39820.qmail at f5-external.bushwire.net>, "Mark Delany"
 writes:
> On 14Mar12, Leo Vegoda allegedly wrote:
> 
> > > You need to explain why a business would voluntarily stop 
> > > listening to
> > > IPv4 traffic and why ISPs would stop carrying it.
> > 
> 
> > I can't tell you the decade but I would have thought the decision 
> > for a commercial organisation would be relatively simple. If it 
> > costs more money to maintain an IPv4 service than is made by its 
> > presence then commercial organisations would be motivated to remove 
> > the IPv4 service. After all, they're in business to make profits.
> 
> True of course. Though if folk have to run dual stack for a number of 
> years, would you expect the maintenance burden to be very high?
> 
> Quite possibly the opportunity cost of v4 addresses may become the 
> dominant economic factor in the earlier years. But at some point that 
> market will start to decline pretty rapidly.
> 
> 
> One cost that isn't talked about much is the transition for 
> application s/w and databases. While there is plenty of evidence that 
> stacks and routers are good at v6 support these days, I wonder about 
> the state of network related applications written over the last 15 
> years or so.
> 
> E.g, how much running code blithely copies gethostbyname() responses 
> with an int32? Or assumes that the string representation in a database 
> is <= 15 bytes?  Or uses a hand-written dotted quad config parser?
> 
> Sure it's bad programming, but there are a lot of bad programmers.
> 
> What worries me most about these is that if their service provider or 
> IT dept. helpfully shields them behind 6to4s then they're going to get 
> a nasty shock very late in the day when they finally come out of 
> hiding.

Which is why many of us have been saying for years.  Turn IPv6 on and test everything.
 
> Mark.
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--
Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka at isc.org
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