[AusNOG] Getting there from here (was: Re: My Predictions for the ISP Industry)

[Scott Howard]

On Tue, Mar 13, 2012 at 7:04 PM, Noel Butler <noel.butler at ausics.net> wrote:

> **
> My point was Mark, once we run out of ipv4, long before the rest of the
> world, and end users here can only be issued with ipv6, with the majority
> of the world not using ipv6, it will be a lonely place, unless ISP's
> configure kinda like nat 6 to 4 since 4 is the dominant.
> I don't for one second believe ipv4 will even look like being vanished for
> another decade or more.
>

Of course IPv4 will continue to work for countless years to come. If you've
only got an IPv4 address, you'll still be able to access Facebook and
Twitter. I don't think anyone is doubting that.

But how well is your VOIP phone going to work through the 2 or 3+ levels of
NAT that your ISP starts implementing when they discover that they have run
out of IPv4 IPs and can't get any more, or perhaps just when they realize
that they can make more money selling of their IPs to hosting companies
than they can make using them for consumer DSL services!

Or how about Facebooks new 3D video chat service they launch in a year or
two time, where they decide that it's simply too hard to support
multi-level NAT, STUN, TCP/UDP port exhaustion, etc and simply make it IPv6
only?

Think nobody will be able to access it if they do that?  Well today ALL
AT&T DSL subscribers in the US have access to IPv6 if their hardware
supports it.  Yes, it's 6RD, but so what - it's still IPv6!  That's what,
15 million subscribers (so 30-40 million people?).  Comcast has been
trialing IPv6 for some time, and will probably make it available to all
sometime this year, so that's another 17 million subscribers (what's what,
70 million people now, just from 2 companies?).  And of course, they aren't
the only ones.

Remember how we all used to use dialup modems? Websites seemed fast. We
could even watch video over them.  It all seemed good.  Well guess what,
dialup modems still exist, but if you try going it's a lot slower than it
used to be - not because your modem is slower, but because the websites
have moved onto the next technology, and 1MB of data to bring up a homepage
isn't all that unusual.  Once IPv6 hits a certain level of critical mass -
and especially as CGNAT/etc start to be rolled out - you can expect
websites and the Internet to start to favor it in ways that we can't even
yet imagine.  Post June 6th 2012 (world IPv6 day), and post some major
access providers like Comcast and AT&T starting to deploy IPv6 by default
to all consumers this year, it'll only be a matter of time before that
happens.

If you want to stick to the "dialup modem", and especially if you're an ISP
that thinks you can just keep providing "dialup modem" services then feel
free - you can still access Facebook and Twitter after all!

  Scott.
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