[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

Wed Mar 14 10:10:08 EST 2012

I don't see it being that bad.
ipv6 is already in the wild and its a well defined standard, the 56k 
thing was the cutting edge of tech, ipv6 has been around for a decade.
any sane person is going to run dual stack, not ipv4 to customers then 
ipv6 to the internet as a whole.

The biggest roadblock that I see is windows XP doesn't do IPv6 by 
default, and even if you install it it's "not supported" and missing 
some bits as i recall.

On 03/14/2012 10:03 AM, Skeeve Stevens wrote:
> Looks like we agree.
>
> My worry is that the rush to deal with IPv6 migration methods will be 
> a lot like the old days when moving from 28.8 to 56k... and all the 
> ensuing incompatibilities because vendors couldn't wait with Hayes, 
> USR all coming up with their own standards like V.Fast, V.FC then 
> K56Flex, X2 and so on...
>
> What will be the transition versions that carriers like Cisco may come 
> up with which are proprietary and non-compatible with other vendors. 
>  Will it happen? Of course it will... who will be first?
>
> ...Skeeve
>
> *Skeeve Stevens, CEO*
>
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>
> On Wed, Mar 14, 2012 at 09:48, Mark Newton <newton at atdot.dotat.org 
> <mailto:newton at atdot.dotat.org>> wrote:
>
>     On Wed, Mar 14, 2012 at 01:03:55AM +1100, Skeeve Stevens wrote:
>
>     > There is NO killer app for IPv6 yet and there is unlikely to be
>     > one for quite sometime.
>
>     Hmm.
>
>     As standards-breaking, expensive, end-user-hating CGN garbage gets
>     more and more entrenched into IPv4 networks, the killer app for
>     IPv6 will be, "Not needing to deal with the mess that is IPv4."
>
>     There are a couple of other predictions I'll add to your scenario
>     which might make it a bit less gloomy.
>
>     I've done a couple of conference presentations where I've described
>     the post-exhaustion IPv4 market as similar to the market we'd have
>     if the last oil well had totally dried up, but we still had a
>     few million barrels floating around the oceans undelivered in
>     tankers.
>
>     Growing demand, zero additional supply...  sounds a lot like IPv4,
>     right?
>
>     Things I'd expect to see:
>
>      1 The price of oil would go through the roof.  It'd still be
>        available, but at prices that only insane people would be able
>        to afford.
>
>      2 The high price would stimulate new innovative techniques for
>        doing what we need to do without oil, or with less oil.  So
>        as the price rose, more efficient use of the resource would
>        see the retail prices for products that use oil grow at a slower
>        rate.
>
>      3 As prices grow, alternatives which are currently uneconomic would
>        start to look pretty good.  e.g., All those people raving on about
>        how electric cars have no future because they're such an expensive
>        mode of transport would look pretty silly when petrol costs $100
>        per litre, and you can recharge your expensive-to-purchase electric
>        car from flat for less than ten bucks, making opex dominate capex.
>
>      4 The maturing of suddenly-cheaper alternatives would moderate demand
>        for the exhausted resource.  Towards the end of the transition,
>        I'd expect is price to be pretty low, because we'd be in a state
>        where society didn't actually feel like they wanted/needed it
>     anymore.
>
>     So, my predictive trends:
>
>     IPv4 price will spike, drive towards a peak, then plateau as CGN
>     technologies reach the market.
>
>     CGN will be more of a pain in the arse than anyone is capable of
>     predicting now, and will add opex to networks in the form of support,
>     rebuilding applications to work reliably, and all kinds of other
>     "fringe" artefacts that nobody has considered.
>
>     As opex increases, eventually CFO's will start to look towards IPv6
>     migration as a way of getting out of the IPv4 hellhole.  "You mean
>     that if we start migrating our customers to v6 now, and do it
>     fast enough, we'll never need to buy another upgrade for our CGN
>     appliances?  Get to it, your deliverable is due next Friday."
>
>     IPv4 demand will then start to slacken, as IPv6 becomes mainstream.
>
>     Corollary:  If you're selling IPv4 address space, there'll be a
>     pretty narrow window when you'll fetch the best price.  It isn't now;
>     but it sure as hell isn't ten years from now either.
>
>      - mark
>
>
>
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