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I don't see it being that bad.<br>
ipv6 is already in the wild and its a well defined standard, the 56k
thing was the cutting edge of tech, ipv6 has been around for a
decade.<br>
any sane person is going to run dual stack, not ipv4 to customers
then ipv6 to the internet as a whole.<br>
<br>
The biggest roadblock that I see is windows XP doesn't do IPv6 by
default, and even if you install it it's "not supported" and missing
some bits as i recall.<br>
<br>
On 03/14/2012 10:03 AM, Skeeve Stevens wrote:
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAEUfUGNYmijyTy1uJXCOazm9o2D3oP7+1djszYX1RycWXQZhig@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<div>Looks like we agree.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>My worry is that the rush to deal with IPv6 migration methods
will be a lot like the old days when moving from 28.8 to 56k...
and all the ensuing incompatibilities because vendors couldn't
wait with Hayes, USR all coming up with their own standards like
V.Fast, V.FC then K56Flex, X2 and so on... </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>What will be the transition versions that carriers like Cisco
may come up with which are proprietary and non-compatible with
other vendors. Will it happen? Of course it will... who will be
first?</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>...Skeeve</div>
<div><br>
<div>
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<b>Skeeve Stevens, CEO</b></p>
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The Experts Who The Experts Call</span></div>
<div style="font-size: 14px; color: rgb(127, 0, 127);"><span
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- Cisco – Brocade - IBM</span></div>
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<br>
<br>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Wed, Mar 14, 2012 at 09:48, Mark
Newton <span dir="ltr"><<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:newton@atdot.dotat.org">newton@atdot.dotat.org</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt
0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204);
padding-left: 1ex;">
On Wed, Mar 14, 2012 at 01:03:55AM +1100, Skeeve Stevens
wrote:<br>
<br>
> There is NO killer app for IPv6 yet and there is
unlikely to be<br>
> one for quite sometime.<br>
<br>
Hmm.<br>
<br>
As standards-breaking, expensive, end-user-hating CGN
garbage gets<br>
more and more entrenched into IPv4 networks, the killer app
for<br>
IPv6 will be, "Not needing to deal with the mess that is
IPv4."<br>
<br>
There are a couple of other predictions I'll add to your
scenario<br>
which might make it a bit less gloomy.<br>
<br>
I've done a couple of conference presentations where I've
described<br>
the post-exhaustion IPv4 market as similar to the market
we'd have<br>
if the last oil well had totally dried up, but we still had
a<br>
few million barrels floating around the oceans undelivered
in<br>
tankers.<br>
<br>
Growing demand, zero additional supply... sounds a lot like
IPv4,<br>
right?<br>
<br>
Things I'd expect to see:<br>
<br>
1 The price of oil would go through the roof. It'd still
be<br>
available, but at prices that only insane people would be
able<br>
to afford.<br>
<br>
2 The high price would stimulate new innovative techniques
for<br>
doing what we need to do without oil, or with less oil.
So<br>
as the price rose, more efficient use of the resource
would<br>
see the retail prices for products that use oil grow at a
slower<br>
rate.<br>
<br>
3 As prices grow, alternatives which are currently
uneconomic would<br>
start to look pretty good. e.g., All those people raving
on about<br>
how electric cars have no future because they're such an
expensive<br>
mode of transport would look pretty silly when petrol
costs $100<br>
per litre, and you can recharge your
expensive-to-purchase electric<br>
car from flat for less than ten bucks, making opex
dominate capex.<br>
<br>
4 The maturing of suddenly-cheaper alternatives would
moderate demand<br>
for the exhausted resource. Towards the end of the
transition,<br>
I'd expect is price to be pretty low, because we'd be in
a state<br>
where society didn't actually feel like they
wanted/needed it anymore.<br>
<br>
So, my predictive trends:<br>
<br>
IPv4 price will spike, drive towards a peak, then plateau as
CGN<br>
technologies reach the market.<br>
<br>
CGN will be more of a pain in the arse than anyone is
capable of<br>
predicting now, and will add opex to networks in the form of
support,<br>
rebuilding applications to work reliably, and all kinds of
other<br>
"fringe" artefacts that nobody has considered.<br>
<br>
As opex increases, eventually CFO's will start to look
towards IPv6<br>
migration as a way of getting out of the IPv4 hellhole.
"You mean<br>
that if we start migrating our customers to v6 now, and do
it<br>
fast enough, we'll never need to buy another upgrade for our
CGN<br>
appliances? Get to it, your deliverable is due next
Friday."<br>
<br>
IPv4 demand will then start to slacken, as IPv6 becomes
mainstream.<br>
<br>
Corollary: If you're selling IPv4 address space, there'll
be a<br>
pretty narrow window when you'll fetch the best price. It
isn't now;<br>
but it sure as hell isn't ten years from now either.<br>
<span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><br>
- mark<br>
</font></span></blockquote>
</div>
<br>
</div>
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