[AusNOG] Alternative to NBN?

[David Connors]

On Fri, May 20, 2011 at 11:05 AM, Mark Stewart <mark at nabc.com.au> wrote:

> The sad part about people harping on about Wireless Internet technology is
> that they don’t understand it terribly well.
>

Indeed.

Higher speed wireless requires a tighter bandwidth signal which means that
> it does work so well in densely populated areas so the Telco’s are forced to
> put more towers in to compensate for this issue. More towers means more
> money to put those towers in, approval from council etc. to put said towers
> in place, strong opposition from the general public about why more of these
> towers have to put installed and finally more maintenance!
>

Reality is the opposite of what you propose.

Higher speed wireless = more bandwidth available for a given slot of time on
the air. An increase in bandwidth means that a given user will use a
proportionately smaller amount of RF air time to consume the same amount of
data = more free air time and more users and a higher peak throughput for
the network.

Increasing a quota allocation in terms of GB/month will cause users to eat
up more RF air time, not making the network faster. That will do the
opposite.

Also, with the move to LTE + the opening up of new spectrum (Joolia
is salivating at the prospect of the $ from the digital dividend and so is
given set top boxes to old farts to hurry them the hell off her way out of
debt) , telcos can do more with the existing towers. I think I read
somewhere that the 700Mhz spectrum freed up from the digital dividend will
easily allow THREE NextG quality competitors (in *addition* to NextG at
850Mhz) using the 20Mhz LTE deployment model.

NextG is already pretty amazing - LTE will wipe the floor with it.

Clap your peepers on this: http://www.speedtest.net/result/1039968978.png
This is out of a NextG Ultimate USB modem in the Sydney CBD (which people
such as yourself would no doubt argue is congested).

Not to mention that weather and other atmospheric conditions can adversely
> affect these towers which will limit their capabilities. You must also
> factor in the topology of the terrain and how these wireless technologies
> fail to work in valleys and for a lot of the Perth hills.
>
>
>
> On these alone it’s not to understand why the current NBN plan is more
> superior than any other suggested plan.
>
>
I don't think I have ever seen anyone suggest that wireless is technically
superior to fibre. To suggest people are arguing that completely misses the
point - which largely centres around the business case.

Most of the arguments I have seen (which are completely lost on most people
on this list) centre around the cost of the NBN, whether people will
actually sign up for it and have a use for it, and whether or not a lot of
people are happy enough with wireless at a poofteenth of the cost (both to
build and buy as an end punter).

I suspect a lot of iPad toting Gen-Y people will be happy enough with a few
gig of NextG data on their iPad. They can buy that at retail for less than
the price of NBN's entry-level wholesale price, if memory serves.

According to this:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/more-staff-than-customers-on-nbn-books/story-fn59niix-1226058566125
NBN
Co has 784 staff and 607 customers. Meanwhile Telstra is adding *50,000
customers a month* to NextG and it only cost them a billion to build and
they did it over a 12 month period.

In other words, Telstra put 82x the number of people on NextG *per month* as
are on the NBN in total.

Some random Friday afternoon Googling that does not qualify as quality
research but might open your eyes a bit:
http://thebernoullitrial.wordpress.com/2010/08/07/australian-isp-market-share-2009-2010/
+
http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2010/08/telstra-signing-up-50000-next-g-broadband-users-a-month/
would put NextG ahead of Optus (number 2 on that list) for broadband
subscribers. 4 x the size of TPG. 7 x the size of Internode. Using old HSDPA
tech, not the LTE future, and (once JG hands out free STBs) there is enough
spectrum for 3x the number of providers of this quality.

Stop that think about that next time you write wireless off.

Fibre is definitely better for fixed scenarios and I'll be getting my tax
payer subsidised fibre connected as soon as it rolls past my front door -
but I'd rather see the money spent on any number of other government
initiatives for which there will never be a market solution.

-- 
*David Connors* | david at codify.com | www.codify.com
Software Engineer
Codify Pty Ltd
Phone: +61 (7) 3210 6268 | Facsimile: +61 (7) 3210 6269 | Mobile: +61 417
189 363
V-Card: https://www.codify.com/cards/davidconnors
Address Info: https://www.codify.com/contact
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