[AusNOG] IPocalypse now (?)

[Skeeve Stevens]

I foresee that people will go "Really?" then go back to sleep for a while.

It will be about two years till this affects the enterprise market.

IANA runs out today, APNIC will take about 9-12 months to run out.  Once they run out, it will take ISP's a while to run out in Australia – we don't have that many new customers joining the internet.

Then technologies like CGN/LSN will start to be deployed to delay the inevitable.  During this time ISPs will actually start to deploy IPv6 options, but the take-up will be minimal for quite a while.

Remember, IPv6 means nothing to the average home/business user.  They want to type in a www.domain.name and for it to just work and get translated in the background.

There is no earth shattering new products or applications coming from the adoption of IPv6 that will cause mass-market uptake.

Will IPv4 die? Yes.. But it will take a LONG LONG time… Even if people have v6 on the edge in the next couple of years, internal networks will be left alone for years and years to come.

New technologies will come to help us bridge the IPv6 to IPv4 migration – a LOT of them… But I suspect the many will just shrug their shoulders and continue on with what they no.

It will happen… Just not as fast as we would hope.

Damien, my experience is that we've been working with ISPs for over two years enabling their networks to be IPv6 compatible – and while there are always early adopters, the bulk (95%+) are just sitting their waiting to see what happens before actually moving.

...Skeeve

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On 1/02/11 10:39 AM, "Damien Morris" <damien at yahoo-inc.com<mailto:damien at yahoo-inc.com>> wrote:

On 1/02/11 10:26 AM, "Skeeve Stevens" <Skeeve at eintellego.net<mailto:Skeeve at eintellego.net>> wrote:

You wish.
It will take more than IPv4 running out to get people off their
asses and doing something about IPv6.  This will help, but not
as much as people will think.

Prompts me to pose the question again - what in your experience makes you
say this? What do you foresee happening instead?

Thanks,
Damien.

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