[AusNOG] WP now censoring

[Michael Kahl]

I was amazed how long it took most people in the industry to either notice
this, or go public with it.. When the pricing examples were worked through
at the presentations I remember thinking that maybe AGVC's back in the day
10 years ago weren't so bad after all.. It's almost sad that data can be
hauled 10000km for around the same price as NBNco can drag it around 10km in
most cases.

I hope they work out a way to make analogue modems work over those UNI-V
ports because once the copper is cut I think that's about the only option
that the majority of people will be able to afford..

On Thu, Apr 14, 2011 at 12:37 PM, Bevan Slattery
<Bevan.Slattery at nextdc.com>wrote:

>  Well apparently I've been put in the penalty box on WP.  Seems like even
> they aren't too keen on disclosure on NBN Co pricing.  Thread is here:
>
>
>
> http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1675718&p=24
>
>  I know there are NBN Co. people lurking here, can I just say it's pretty
> ordinary form to start a post on WP to create a level of disclosure and
> improve communication, then not respond to anyone else's posts since.
> Despite assurances from the poster that they would respond on 2 separate
> occasions via WHIM, NBN Co. silence is deafening.
>
>
>
> So can I ask on AUSNOG, can the original poster provide an answer to the
> following:
>
>
>
> __________________________________________________
>
> Hi Jim,
>
>
>
> Firstly, thanks for getting on WP and posting some pricing scenarios. It is
> fantastic to have public access to some of the modelling you have provided.
> I have a couple of scenarios and questions I'd like your feedback on if
> that's OK.
>
>
>
> nbncocomms writes...
>
>
>
> We have carried out analysis of what we expect a Service Provider would
> have to pay to NBN Co to offer NBN services at different levels. I have only
> included the NBN costs. Service providers will have additional costs of
> backhaul and international traffic outside of the NBN costs which they will
> have to manage.
>
>
>
> On page 130 of the NBN Corporate Business Plan NBN Co presented a number of
> "Broadband Business Cases" highlighting how much "peak" capacity NBN Co
> foresee's households needing in the future (explaning why FTTH is
> necessary). This can be found here:
>
>
>
>
> http://www.nbnco.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/eea11780451bd3618ebfef15331e6bbb/101215+NBN+Co+3+Year+GBE+Corporate+Plan+Final.pdf?MOD=AJPERES
>
>
>
> In the "Advanced" user NBN Co show a household with a total of 34Mpbs peak
> demand including SDTV x 2 (8Mbps), HDTV x 1 (9Mbps).
>
>
>
> If this were to be provided in an "uncontended" manner ie with dedicated
> CVC capacity would the wholesale cost to the RSP to deliver that to the
> customer be:
>
>
>
> Tail (50/20) $34
>
> CVC 34Mbps x $20 = $680
>
> Total $714
>
>
>
> The RSP would have to add backhaul and IP/Transit, margin, support etc..
>
>
>
> Q: Is an uncontended cost of $714/month the amount NBN Co. would charge the
> RSP for this service?
>
>
>
> Secondly, under this scenario NBN Co. have assumed on page 130 of the
> Corporate Plan, NBN Co. have indicated that under this scenario the average
> user would download 200GB of data per month.
>
>
>
> Under your pricing included in your opening post you are effectively
> showing you are showing a $1.20 charge per 10GB of consumption on a monthly
> plan for the 250,000+ RSP (I cannot follow the 80,000 subscriber numbers as
> there is no difference between a 10GB per month consumption and a 20GB per
> month consumption but it's fair to assume they would be higher.)
>
>
>
> • Our current estimate of the cost to a national service provider to
> support a customer using 10GB is about (All prices in the examples are
> ex-GST are inclusive of all four product components UNI, AVC, CVC and NNI)
>
> o $25.05 when total customers is 250,000
>
> o $26.65 when total customers is 80,000
>
>
>
> • Our current estimate of the cost to a national service provider to
> support a customer using 20GB is about
>
> o $26.50 when total customers is 250,000
>
> o $26.65 when total customers is 80,000
>
>
>
> • Our current estimate of the cost to a national service provider to
> support a customer using 30GB is about
>
> o $27.45 when total customers is 250,000
>
> o $28.15 when total customers is 80,000
>
>
>
> Q: So under this scenario on page 130 of NBN Co. corporate plan you are
> assuming that despite people having access to 34Mbps of demand at peak times
> they will only use an average of 0.6Mbps per month?
>
>
>
> Q: On the assumption that this is correct under your model (which I do not
> agree with) NBN Co. will charge the ISP $58/month for the wholesale service
> excluding backhaul, IP, content etc. but this is also based upon a 50:1
> contention of peak demand and CVC at 100% utilisation or approximately a
> 100:1 contention in more real terms with 50% utilisation (considering
> bandwidth demand does fluctuate and isn't perfectly uniform)?
>
>
>
> HDTV under this scenario of NBN Co.'s business case consumes 9Mbps and 2
> standard def TV streams at 4mbps each (total of 17Mbps of possible TV
> demand). Even assuming a household only has one HDTV TV this would consume
> over 4,000MB/hour of viewing. So assuming this household does not use it's
> NBN connection for anything else (no internet access, no smart phones, no
> e-health, no standard definition TV's) but just watching 1 x HDTV, a 200GB
> "assumption" only provides for 50 hours of non-multicast viewing per month
> (or 1.66 hours per day).
>
>
>
> Q: With the latest Neilson research in the US showing the average American
> watches 150+ hours per month is that realistic, particularly assuming the
> Australian household is an average of 2.5 people and with 3+ TV screens in
> them (let's remember we are talking about 2020 here and not todays viewing)?
>
>
>
> Many ISP's now offer 1,000GB plans to the market and considering NBN Co. is
> going to enable the viewing of SDTV and HDTV this type of data volume would
> be expected to become more mainstream over the coming years.
>
>
>
> Q: Assuming users consumed all their 1000GB per month this would equate to
> approximately 3Mbps of continuous downloading throughout the month (and
> considering the video scenario above you can see how this would easily
> happen under the NBN) am I correct in calculating the cost to the provider
> in a perfect world where utilisation is perfectly even (which it's not) is
> $84/month + NNI + bachaul + transit/content + support costs + margin +GST?
>
>
>
> Q: Assuming your $1.20/10GB NBN download cost (as NBN Co has provided above
> being the difference between a 10GB download and a 20GB download and a 30Gb
> download) am I correct in calculating the cost of being $144/month ex gst
> and $158.40 inc gst being $24 tail (for a basic DSL like tail being 12/1)
> and $120/month for NNI/CVC before the RSP adds backhaul + transit/content +
> support costs + margin + GST?
>
>
>
> Q: Assuming these products which are currently retailing between $79/month
> and $99/month operate on a 50% spillage basis (people only consume half
> their quota) then by NBN Co's calculation it's charge to the RSP for just
> the tail and connection to the PoI would be greater than the current retail
> price of the entire product which includes bachaul + transit/content +
> support costs + margin +GST? (Calculated using basic DSL equivalent service
> being the 12/1 at $24 + $60 for 500GB of download + GST)
>
>
>
> I look forward to confirming NBN Co's costings based more realistic
> assumptions included in the actual business plan.
>
>
>
> Cheers
>
>
>
> [b]
>
> ___________________________________________________________
>
> [b]
>
>
>
>
>
> Removed post #1
>
> *****
>
> "WTW writes...
>
>
>
> Telstra ADSL was also a train wreck. It took half a decade to put that
> exercise back on the rails."
>
>
>
> It actually took competition at the infrastructure layer to put this
> exercise back on the rails (which happened over the last half decade) not
> time itself.
>
>
>
> - It was 2005 when providers such as iiNet, Internode, Primus etc. started
> to rollout DSLAM's for residential DSL. [innovation/competition]
>
> - It took DF backhaul from independents sort out the problems with
> exhorbitant backhaul charges and to provide multicast capability not
> previously available [innovation/competition]
>
> - It was iiNet, Internode, Primus, TPG, AAPT etc.. that were the first to
> deploy ADSL2+ DSLAM's and remove the normal speed restraints by abolishing
> port speed restrictions and give users autotrain on all ports
> [innovation/competition]
>
> - It was competitive providers that introduced ANNEX M
>
> - It was competition that delivered unlimited plans
>
> - It was competitive providers that funded PPC-1
>
> - It was competive providers that are forcing the reduction of broadband
> plans
>
>
>
> It doesn't always happen this way I know. The most notable exception was
> Telstra rolling out NEXTG. But it was competition that made them get on the
> front foot.
>
>
>
> With removal of competition at the physical layer (and legislatively) NBN
> is free to [not] innovate and reduce prices creating a floor for internet
> prices in Australia.
>
>
>
> [b]
>
>
>
> #2
>
> *******
>
> "decromin writes...
>
>
>
> All of which can be done in a NBN world too."
>
>
>
> For how much? That is the purpose of this thread. It's time for NBN Co. to
> answer the questions. It is apparent from this thread their "engagement"
> starts with a sermon from up on high, but stops when hard questions need to
> be answered.
>
>
>
> Their silence on this thread is deafening.
>
>
>
> [b]
>
>
>
> #3
>
> ******
>
>
>
> "WTW writes...
>
>
>
> Yes. As we've seen NextDC's media team are here talking about the issues,
> not their MD."
>
>
>
> This is me asking in a personal (industry old man) capacity.
>
>
>
> [b]
>
> *****
>
>
>
> #4
>
> *****
>
> "decromin writes...
>
>
>
> I don't see anything in there that is impossible under an NBN model"
>
>
>
> 1. So if I can deploy a FttH/N infrastructure to residential customers that
> offers as a BASE service of 100Mbps/100Mpbs for the same price or cheaper
> than NBN Co. can I do that?
>
>
>
> 2. So under an NBN world could an ISP deliver broadband to 80% of their
> customers using cheaper than NBN Co. using ULL or LSS?
>
>
>
> 3. What is the mechanism to enforce NBN Co. to provide OECD comparable
> services (price and features) to other leading countries? Isn't this one of
> the reason we are doing this (also note Australia has dropped from 12th to
> 19th since NBN has been in play)
>
>
>
> 4. How do I access the dedicated fibre from home to FAN/POI to provide a
> differentiated service offering as people can under ULL/LSS?
>
>
>
> 5. Why can't I get an uncontended 12/12Mbps tail under NBN Co. for a flat
> fee of $24 including the CVC and just provide my own backhaul?
>
>
>
> 6. So how again can I innovate if I can't change anything in that entire
> model or even worse, am an efficient and innovative operator and want to
> compete with NBN Co. at the infrastructure layer but am legislatively am not
> allowed to? How is that progress?
>
>
>
> [b]
>
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