[AusNOG] NBN Legislation

Wed Dec 1 02:35:55 EST 2010

Hi,

For starters, I will note that the NBN people have not had its
operations group active on this list and would have loved to have seen
that, I see that as a flaw (just like people keep on going on about lack
of 'business case'), they have not been open, but I can also see that as
a result of the government taking control of an issue and the people
working for said NBN Co being at the whim of the government, that is
part of the cost of the government taking control of such an issue like
this.

There will be people who lose out due to this, but think there would
probably be more who would be worse off if they didn't and I'm probably
a commie at heart :-)

The people who are setting this up are basically now (although not in
job description as they are employed by a 'company') civil servants and
their position largely dependant on not saying 'something stupid'
publically, much more so than the average company executive as they are
in the centre of a political issue that affects more people than the
average company, if they did get involved here they would likely be out
of a job quickly due to negativity of the entities here who are here
that have more power due to their personal net worth. (e.g. I expect
this to have substantially less weight due to being a 'little person'
than the goliath Bevan (no disrespect there, just trying to make a point
and you spring to mind, Hi!, think have met all of once in the
elevator).

You may hate me for this but I am for the NBN, even if costs more than
what would cost a commercial entity to do so as think it will realise
better results overall than what any commercial roll-out would do, have
been very surprised by their target percentage.

I have _NO_ confidence in the private sector (apart from Telstra if it
wasn't split _but_ it would be to the detriment to both other telcos and
especially to consumers and that is a whole other theoretical
conversation) to achieve the speeds desired or required later on in the
residential space, from an email was considering sending earlier:

Lets take for example my connection.

Moved in to current house I am renting around 2 or so years ago, when
moved in was unsure if could get ADSL1 until I had actually moved in,
had the phone connected and could apply. The only other viable option
would have been Telstra cable which I did not personally want to use.

Then wanted to upgrade to ADSL2, majority of providers are unable to
provide it (no ports) and the ones that could did not have a plan that
suited me and only recently upgraded (1-2 months ago), utilizing
resources not available to the average end user to get what I wanted,
and when I did upgrade I had very little idea of what speed I would be
able to achieve (was pleasantly surprised to get 10mbit, was expecting
significantly lower).

I believe it _should_ already be better than this. At least with the NBN
you will know when moving to a location you will know if it is there or
not and that it will be rolled out at some point if not already.

While I do not agree with some of what they are doing (e.g. gpon, L2
(but that is just personal and can not currently see how L3 deployment
could work without NBN doing more than they will already need to)), but
that is the _cost_ of government getting involved to rectify an issue.

All I can see is that telco's would only keep rolling out DSL,
particularly in established areas and attempting to get the copper
network to go faster and faster (vDSL) while masking the underlying bit
error rate as they try to deal with more and more cross-talk and
consumers being even more unaware of the service they could expect when
ordering.

Feel free to discuss this on-list, off-list or at the pub (first Tuesday
of month next Tuesday and will be at P&W on Eagle, Brisbane with
'crew'). I would very much like for someone to sit down with me over a
couple of drinks and discuss why (as an advantage to Australian society)
is better than what is occurring. I am sure I am likely missing some
major key facts and very willing to listen.

I would also like to put forward that we start discussing ways to
leverage what looks to be a given in ways that would be an advantage of
Australians and businesses, I do have a couple (and I do mean two, not a
rough couple) of ideas I would like to explore when the NBN
nears/reaches 'critical mass' and I would be surprised if no-one else
has thought of them (and explores with funding they have that I don't).

Anyway, that's my Tuesday rant to someone :-)

Steve

________________________________

From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net
[mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Curtis Bayne
Sent: Monday, 29 November 2010 12:27 PM
To: John Edwards; vak
Cc: ausnog at ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] NBN Legislation

We've already begun divesting our carriage-related assets and ceased
regional roll out in August, straight after the election. From what I've
read, we're not the only provider to be doing so - the advice my fellow
management types are receiving from their advisers and boards are the
same as what we're getting: get out now.

Banks refuse to give any money given the regulatory uncertainty. Any
other investment capital is only accessible at ridiculous interest
because of the increased risk. The NBN has rewarded the tyre-kicking,
bottom-feeding resellers who have contributed NOTHING to infrastructure
in this country and punished those who have risked significant amounts
of capital to further telco endeavors.

For anyone considering investing in their own infrastructure in
Australia, I have one piece of advice for you:

Bring lube.

-C

-----Original Message-----
From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net on behalf of John Edwards
Sent: Mon 11/29/2010 12:09 PM
To: vak
Cc: ausnog at ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] NBN Legislation

On 29/11/2010, at 9:45 AM, vak wrote:

> Many people have claimed the stifling of innovation as a reason why we
> should not have the NBN.
>
> I would argue the exact opposite. The NBN will stimulate new ideas and
> products. Those who generate new ideas today will be the winners in
the
> next decade - its an opportunity we must not sqander.

History shows that on the ASX at least, the successful carriers in
Australia are those that have deployed their own infrastructure. This is
generally considered to be "innovating" by press releases, as it allows
these carriers to change the market they're in, and more importantly
have a significant competitive and technical advantage over resellers.

With the NBN, this opportunity is no more. We're back to the dialup days
where the difference between services was marginal because everyone
connected over the same basic infrastructure.

I'm not sure that this is a bad thing in most cases, but there are
plenty of opportunities for history to repeat itself. Some group of
investors may decide that it's a great idea to buy market share by
selling an unlimited product below cost (they will also be heralded as
"innovative"), which is going to upset the industry as customers flock
to the better deal or expect their provider to match it. This will
happen right up until they inevitably go bust - complete with a chorus
of I-told-you-so's by pundits and debts to wholesalers including the
NBN. The new problem for industry with that scenario is that this time
around the government is involved and will need to be seen to be "doing
something".

There's also the regional areas - it seems that this part of the
legislation penalises anyone who would dare to compete with the wireless
or satellite parts of the NBN by providing a city-equivalent service.

I am not opposed to the NBN, but I am opposed to uncertainty that
results in people not getting broadband. Legislation that basically
prevents anyone from legally deploying an interim solution better have a
really good reason attached to it.

John

_______________________________________________
AusNOG mailing list
AusNOG at lists.ausnog.net
http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.ausnog.net/pipermail/ausnog/attachments/20101201/c4b03780/attachment.html>