[AusNOG] Flogging a dead horse

[Mark Smith]

On Mon, 16 Aug 2010 15:50:33 +0930
Matthew Moyle-Croft <mmc at internode.com.au> wrote:

> Tim,
> The demand for faster services exists.   The constant denial that it doesn't and the demand isn't going to grow is tiring as you know it's not true.    
> 
> /me hopes you're going to be vocal about the government spending same kinds of dollars on a few ships, submarines and fighter planes over the next decade.   Certainly if we can't afford NBN then we can't afford to spend the same money on defence as well.
> 

Actually, I don't think that analogy holds. It's not about how much
money is being spent, it's how well it's being spent and on what.

If we sink (literally) all this money into the ground, that's
completely ignoring that laptops outsold desktops last year (i.e.
people will buy the chance of having mobility just in case they
occasionally need it) and that phones are becoming small mobile
computers. IOW, I think it is clear that the wireless/mobile Internet
trend is only going to continue. That's not to say wireless is the
complete solution either. However I find spending everything on fixed
infrastructure at this stage, when there is a clear trend to mobility,
very questionable. 


> Still I see no alternate plan other than "hopefully technology will save us from ourselves".
> 

I remember from systems analysis study many years back that after
requirements analysis and high level design (I think, I'm rusty), you
make a proposal as to what options there are to proceed to the
implementation phase. Commonly there will be 4 to 6 of them. There will
certainly always be at least one valid one - do nothing, continue doing
what you're doing - because the return on investment of the other
options may not, at the time of the decision, clearly provide adequate
returns.

Would it be such an issue to wait another two years to see how the
mobility trend eventuates? If the NBN model of today ends up being the
completely correct one, and two years more evolution in smartphone or
laptop instead of desktop trend will more definitely answer that, at
least it'll be likely to be cheaper to implement.

Right now, I think the only urgency for the NBN is because it is on one
political party's agenda.

Regards,
Mark.