[AusNOG] background radiation was: "i want a pony!" (wasRe:Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?! [personal])

[Curtis Bayne]

This is true, but what will the attrition rate be?

Anybody? No? Nobody knows. It hasn't been built yet.

Now justify that to someone who's about to outlay a non-trivial amount of their wealth to build this independent infrastructure (keeping the "fools and their money" adage in mind).

I can practically assure you that every seasoned investor will give a similar response, the second word of which is "off".


-----Original Message-----
From: Brad Gould [mailto:bradley at internode.com.au]
Sent: Thu 8/12/2010 3:26 PM
To: Curtis Bayne
Cc: ausnog at ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] background radiation was: "i want a pony!" (wasRe:Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?! [personal])
 


On 12/08/2010 14:48, Curtis Bayne wrote:
> Regulatory certainty in this context is simple: a guarantee that a
> government-owned entity with practically limitless capital and with
> super-carrier privileges won't steamroll my regional telco deployment
> into financial oblivion.

Oblivion will only happen if they (NBNCo+ISP's) offer a product which is 
clearly superior to yours.

Being the incumbent in a regional area would certainly confer some 
advantages long term.

And you could supply those same customers with service on NBNCo 
infrastructure afterwards - there will be a level playing field.

NBN != instant customer base


Brad





> What investor in their right mind would release funds to build regional
> telecommunications infrastructure in the knowledge that there's a strong
> chance it will be worth nothing before that investment is amortized?
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Matthew Moyle-Croft [mailto:mmc at internode.com.au]
> Sent: Thu 8/12/2010 3:08 PM
> To: Curtis Bayne
> Cc: Andrew Oskam; ausnog at ausnog.net; Tom Sykes
> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] background radiation was: "i want a pony!"
> (wasRe:Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?! [personal])
>
> Sure, you can do wireless. (Note: I work for a company with regional
> WIMAX and other radio networks).
>
> But you didn't answer my question.
>
> MMC
>
> On 12/08/2010, at 2:36 PM, Curtis Bayne wrote:
>
>
> It depends on population density and proximity to the closest point of
> interconnect: we've been deploying P2P fixed wireless upto 50Mbps for
> years (even using frequency diverse unlicenced - which works a gem in
> underbuilt regional areas). P2MP upto 20Mbps is easily achievable using
> WiMax or even TDMA WiFi for smaller providers and suits the sparse
> nature of regional areas perfectly.
>
> The low barrier to entry achievable with this equipment will no doubt
> fuel fierce competition between small regional WISPs: with little to
> differentiate these types of providers, customer service and breadth of
> coverage will become the primary competitive factors for organizations
> of this type: smaller organizations also tend to be more agile because
> of their lack of bureaucratic weight and are more likely to have greater
> visibility of the technical complexities involved in servicing that
> particular geographical region (and probably more concerned with the
> preservation of the sanctity of areas of indigenous interest also).
>
> It is in the best interests of these ISPs to build as quickly as
> possible and in as many areas possible as these markets are currently
> untapped - many smaller providers stand a chance to generate substantial
> amounts of revenue from customers who have cracked the shits with
> ISDN/Satellite.
>
> High density industrial/business in regional areas are perfectly
> serviced by two-fibre single mode drops into each building, hauled back
> to an aggregation point and back hauled by dark fibre/Gbit microwave to
> the providers nearest PoP.
>
> The proliferation of regional WISPs in countries such as the Czech
> Republic, Latvia, Africa etc. is a testament to the fact that this
> business model works. Then there's agility; reaching an agreement with
> Telstra to open up their regional fiber networks could result in these
> areas receiving high speed services within MONTHS of an agreement being
> reached, whether those services are deployed by wireless or DSL is upto
> the local provider.
>
> It would also be naive to think that providers such as VHA and Optus
> would not utilize their already entrenched brands to start delivering
> HSDPA services in regional areas: Optus have already begun doing so and
> with great success.
>
> Backhaul breeds competition - just look at the number of independent
> ISPs along Nextgen's inland and coastal routes (LinearG, Linknet,
> WorldWithoutWires, TSN and Cirrus Comms just to name a few) to get an
> idea of just how quickly smaller ISPs can go to market with solutions
> that provide REAL alternatives to the incumbent in a fraction of the
> time required to build a national customer access network.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Matthew Moyle-Croft [mailto:mmc at internode.com.au]
> Sent: Thu 8/12/2010 2:25 PM
> To: Curtis Bayne
> Cc: Andrew Oskam; ausnog at ausnog.net<mailto:ausnog at ausnog.net>; Tom Sykes
> Subject: Re: [AusNOG] background radiation was: "i want a pony!"
> (wasRe:Long live the NBN. The NBN is dead?! [personal])
>
>
> On 12/08/2010, at 1:39 PM, Curtis Bayne wrote:
>
> I do not deny that we need to focus on regional telecommunications, but
> I firmly believe that the NBN is not the answer. The government can
> build regional backhaul networks and let ISPs deliver the local loop
> (via FTTP, WLL, copper, whatever is most effective). The market will set
> demand, the regional blackspot issues resolved and we've spent a hell of
> a lot less than a metro FTTP network which duplicates what's already
> covered by 1xCopper, 2xHFC, 4xMobile and countless fixed wireless providers.
>
> So, to go back to Tim's point "... if there's regulatory certainty" for
> people to invest. Explain to me how you'd achieve this to give enough
> certainty to allow genuine investment and overbuild in regional areas as
> well as metro?
>
> MMC
>
>
> --
> Matthew Moyle-Croft
> Peering Manager and Team Lead - Commercial and DSLAMs
> Internode /Agile
> Level 5, 162 Grenfell Street, Adelaide, SA 5000 Australia
> Email: mmc at internode.com.au<mailto:mmc at internode.com.au> Web:
> http://www.on.net<http://www.on.net/>
> Direct: +61-8-8228-2909 Mobile: +61-419-900-366
> Reception: +61-8-8228-2999 Fax: +61-8-8235-6909
>
>

-- 
Brad Gould, Network Engineer
Internode
PO Box 284, Rundle Mall 5000
Level 5, 162 Grenfell Street, Adelaide 5000
P: 08 8228 2999  F: 08 8235 6999
bradley at internode.com.au; http://www.internode.on.net/

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