[AusNOG] Aust Govt will build National Broadband Network, no company will be awarded the tender.

[Matthew Moyle-Croft]

It's also worth mentioning in the history of last-mile in Australia -  
the government (through PMG etc) built the last comprehensive LMN in  
the country whilst it had a monopoly.   TLS has done little to it since.

MMC

On 12/04/2009, at 10:42 AM, Matthew Moyle-Croft wrote:

> Tim McCullagh wrote:
>
>>
>> The issue is not is FTTH a good idea.  The issue is "is there demand
>> and a need for it" and are consumers prepared to pay for it.  From  
>> the
>> industry point of view "how will it operate and under what rules,
>> costs etc etc that bevan eluded to".  Matthew have you ever dealt  
>> with
>> DBCDE.  If you have you will probably know why this is important.
>> They have no bloody idea about the industry and they will advise the
>> government on how to draft the regulations.
> Yep - as an access seeker we've dealt with all kinds of bits of
> government and I agree with you about DBCDE.
>
> I think that rather than assume failure, we need to at least, as an
> industry, start working hard on ensuring that the outcomes match  
> what we
> want/need.   Are you a member of, for example, Communications  
> Alliance?
> I'm certainly hoping CA can take a bit of a lead in standards settings
> etc in an NBN world.  If not CA, then some other appropriate body.
>
> At the moment, because of history so far, we've ended up in a  
> situation
> where TLS have dominated the scene (and will continue to do so really)
> and as such we haven't ended up with the competitor density to deliver
> alternative last mile networks in brown fields areas.   We've got some
> Optus cable, TransACT and a tiny bit with Bright.  None of which can  
> be
> claimed to be roaring successes.   We're only now seeing a tiny bit of
> FTTP in some new areas.
>
> So, the idea that commerical forces will create this network in the  
> time
> frame we want, when, as you both claim, this NBN FTTP thing is not
> commercially viable, I think is being foolish.
>
> The outcome I was hoping you'd both suggest is one where incentives  
> are
> put in place to build alternative LMN (Last-Mile-networks) and balance
> TLS's vertical integration.   Many countries - Korea, Japan etc have
> made large tax-incentives (some similar to the R&D 150% rebates  
> here) to
> ensure that the networks are built.  Japan has many more alternative
> networks, even though NTT there is just as scary as TLS here.
> The issues, as you've both suggested are commercial not technical.   
> So,
> if the government had wanted to go down that path, they could have  
> made
> the right economic tweaks to start that happening.
>
> The only problem is - GFC.   No one can borrow (see Bevan's issue with
> "a mere US$100m").  So, guess what - the government has put itself in
> play as the backer of the project so that it gets built!
>
> Governments have a place in looking toward the future and making
> decisions which (hopefully) set us in the right direction for the  
> longer
> term (yeah, you can be cynical, but it is the role of government).
> Their current NBN decision is to try and set that infrastructure up  
> and
> get it moving early so that when we want it (10 years out) it's built
> and ready.
>
> Deep down I want many LMN.  I want commercial reality to triumph and  
> to
> have real infrastructure competition.   But the way the competitive
> market place in Australia has occured due to the way TLS was sold off
> has meant it either won't happen or it'll just take too long and  
> affect
> the economic outlook of our country.
>
> If the NBN tries to sell it's ports for too much then it won't work.
> The goverment needs the pricing to drive take up so it can get the
> economic outcomes it desires.  So, I think the government will take a
> bath on it.  It's the only way.
>>
>> I would rather be in Telstra's position than the NBN corporation,  
>> if I
>> was I could turn NBN into a huge white elephant even with the
>> government in the NBN corner.  That is not to say it won't hurt
>> Telstra and this the shareholders like yours and my super funds.  You
>> cannot unscramble an egg
> You can't unscramble it, But you can cook it with parsley, milk and
> cracked pepper and it's tasty.
>
> MMC
>>
>> regards
>>
>> Tim
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-- 
Matthew Moyle-Croft
Networks, Internode/Agile
Level 5, 162 Grenfell Street, Adelaide, SA 5000 Australia
Email: mmc at internode.com.au    Web: http://www.on.net
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