[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry
mmc at mmc.com.au
Fri Mar 16 10:01:36 EST 2012
On 16/03/2012, at 5:44 AM, Geoff Huston wrote:
> On 16/03/2012, at 2:19 AM, Paul Brooks wrote:
>> On 15/03/2012 1:42 PM, Geoff Huston wrote:
>>> Australia is a little better than the global average, with 0.83% of clients shows a preference for IPv6, and some 4.1% of Australian clients shows themselves as being capable of fetching an IPv6-only object. (http://labs.apnic.net/ipv6-measurement/Economies/AU/)
>>> The general picture is that the IPv6 numbers are really quite low numbers at present, but the next year or so will be fascinating to observe.
>> indeed - especially as a significant fraction of Australian clients (and elsewhere)
>> would be hanging off HE tunnels currently, and so will be being counted as US-based
>> users. As ISPs in Australia enable native IPv6 there should be a significant uptick in
>> the Australian stats as people already using IPv6 become 'rehomed' to a local address
> Actually the measurement experiment we are running does not do that - the methodology of performing 5 fetch tests in a uniquely identified set allows up to match up the IPv4 and IPv6 addresses used by each client and we geolocate the user off the IPv4 address because of the tunnel factor in IPv6. So no, to the extent that one can be confident of experimental data, I'm pretty confident that we are seeing IPv6 preference in AU of around 0.83% of users at the moment, and an IPv6 capability of around 4.1% of all users (the higher capability is predominately 6to4 auto-tunnelling performed by Windows systems, quite probably without the knowledge of the end users).
> The not so good news it that is quite low. The not so bad news is that it is less low than many other places!
One of the hidden things is what happens to traffic that isn't from a set of eyeballs.
I know that George Michaelson commented that APNIC saw a marked increase in IPv6 traffic to their DNS servers (incl root server) when Internode move to their new resolver cluster back in late 2009/early 2010. These clusters were IPv6 enabled for customers, but also preferred IPv6 on the backend, so suddenly as much of Internode's DNS resolver traffic as it could moved preferentially to IPv6.
So, increasing IPv6 traffic isn't always just about the eyeballs, it's also about traffic that suddenly switches when you move your routers/servers/applications across.
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