[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry
gih at apnic.net
Fri Mar 16 05:14:18 EST 2012
On 16/03/2012, at 2:19 AM, Paul Brooks wrote:
> On 15/03/2012 1:42 PM, Geoff Huston wrote:
>> Australia is a little better than the global average, with 0.83% of clients shows a preference for IPv6, and some 4.1% of Australian clients shows themselves as being capable of fetching an IPv6-only object. (http://labs.apnic.net/ipv6-measurement/Economies/AU/)
>> The general picture is that the IPv6 numbers are really quite low numbers at present, but the next year or so will be fascinating to observe.
> indeed - especially as a significant fraction of Australian clients (and elsewhere)
> would be hanging off HE tunnels currently, and so will be being counted as US-based
> users. As ISPs in Australia enable native IPv6 there should be a significant uptick in
> the Australian stats as people already using IPv6 become 'rehomed' to a local address
Actually the measurement experiment we are running does not do that - the methodology of performing 5 fetch tests in a uniquely identified set allows up to match up the IPv4 and IPv6 addresses used by each client and we geolocate the user off the IPv4 address because of the tunnel factor in IPv6. So no, to the extent that one can be confident of experimental data, I'm pretty confident that we are seeing IPv6 preference in AU of around 0.83% of users at the moment, and an IPv6 capability of around 4.1% of all users (the higher capability is predominately 6to4 auto-tunnelling performed by Windows systems, quite probably without the knowledge of the end users).
The not so good news it that is quite low. The not so bad news is that it is less low than many other places!
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