[AusNOG] Aust IPv6 growth now tripled

[Kate Lance]

Hey David and Tom,

Go to
https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p&countries=de,us,jp,au,gb,fr
and move the slider at the bottom to the right, and look at the last year.

Of course there are ups and downs for all but, e.g. for Britain, the AU rise
started in mid-March but the British rise started two weeks later. And in May
when the AU numbers went down, the GB numbers didn't. In fact the sudden AU
rise in the last few days doesn't seem to correlate with any others.

I'm probably misunderstanding what Vynke is measuring, but as far as I can see
it's browsers from different countries using IPv6 to access Google sites. So
the numbers of AU users suddenly capable of browsing via v6 has nothing to do
with the numbers of GB (or anywhere) users also capable of browsing via v6. 

That suggests it's measuring the effects of local networks turning on v6 for
local users, as the GB Sky example shows perfectly - but I can't see how that
would explain a rise in AU v6 browsing.

Paul Brooks <pbrooks-ausnog at layer10.com.au> suggested:
> Looks to me more like a popular content site has IPv6-enabled the service
> finally, enabling a latent pool of IPv6-enabled end-points to reveal themselves
> to the Google sensors. 

In that case wouldn't you get simultaneous rises in most countries as users
globally accessed the content?

> Or it might (speculation!)  loosely correlate with the
> launch and update nag-screens for Windows 10 in each country

That's a possibility, especially if the various launches are staggered like that.

Anyway, it's fun to puzzle over this and there's probably a boring answer, but
I guess the bottom line is - wow, Australia's reached the levels of user IPv6
that Germany and the US got to in late 2013. (Now if only we had an NBN...)

All the best,
Kate

 
On Thu, May 19, 2016 at 11:55:44PM +0100, Tom Storey wrote:
> I asked on the uknof mailing list what happened in the UK, it seems
> Sky turned on IPv6 recently for about 3M users. So that explains the
> explosive growth over here.
> 
> Seems BT are nearing readiness to switch it on for their network too.
> 
> On 19 May 2016 at 11:33, David Hughes <david at hughes.com.au> wrote:
> >
> > Hey Kate,
> >
> > This doesn't look to be a local phenomenon.  If you use Eric's tool and include plots for the UK and France for example there are similar unprecedented growth spikes all starting in the the first few months of this year.   All significantly different to the world wide average.  Perhaps some countries that were lagging behind just realised what's going on.
> >
> > Interesting that countries such as Germany have been on a steep growth curve for several years now.  Clever buggers ....
> >
> >
> >
> > Thanks
> >
> > David
> > ...
> >
> >
> > On 19/05/2016, at 6:02 PM, Kate Lance <kate at 6now.net> wrote:
> >
> >> The big local IPv6 increase is still happening - Australian user IPv6
> >> (as measured by Google) has now tripled since the start of March, see
> >> https://twitter.com/ipv6now/status/733193980062498816
> >>
> >> Info from Eric Vynke's graphs at
> >> https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p&countries=ww,au
> >>
> >> Kate Lance
> >
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