[AusNOG] TPG vs the World

Sat May 2 10:26:03 EST 2015

      From: Anthony Bortolotto <a.bortolotto at infinite.net.au>
 To: Shane Short <shane at short.id.au>; Damian Guppy <the.damo at gmail.com> 
Cc: "ausnog at lists.ausnog.net" <ausnog at lists.ausnog.net> 
 Sent: Thursday, 30 April 2015, 16:24
 Subject: Re: [AusNOG] TPG vs the World

#yiv6692217122 #yiv6692217122 -- _filtered #yiv6692217122 {panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;} _filtered #yiv6692217122 {font-family:Calibri;panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;} _filtered #yiv6692217122 {font-family:Consolas;panose-1:2 11 6 9 2 2 4 3 2 4;}#yiv6692217122 #yiv6692217122 p.yiv6692217122MsoNormal, #yiv6692217122 li.yiv6692217122MsoNormal, #yiv6692217122 div.yiv6692217122MsoNormal {margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;font-size:12.0pt;color:black;}#yiv6692217122 a:link, #yiv6692217122 span.yiv6692217122MsoHyperlink {color:blue;text-decoration:underline;}#yiv6692217122 a:visited, #yiv6692217122 span.yiv6692217122MsoHyperlinkFollowed {color:purple;text-decoration:underline;}#yiv6692217122 pre {margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;font-size:10.0pt;color:black;}#yiv6692217122 span.yiv6692217122HTMLPreformattedChar {font-family:Consolas;color:black;}#yiv6692217122 span.yiv6692217122EmailStyle19 {color:#262626;}#yiv6692217122 span.yiv6692217122EmailStyle20 {color:#262626;}#yiv6692217122 .yiv6692217122MsoChpDefault {font-size:10.0pt;} _filtered #yiv6692217122 {margin:72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt;}#yiv6692217122 div.yiv6692217122WordSection1 {}#yiv6692217122 Remember this isn’t just about the Telco Industry. It is investment banking and power plays on the ASX which happens all the time regardless of industry.    I am sure there are all sorts of factors including Teoh’s personal views but at this rate the way the industry is going at the moment, it will end being a duopoly like Woolworths and Coles. Not to mention the NBN potentially being the only residential last mile provider.   / I'd be surprised if TGP give up their FTTB plans, and quite frankly hope they don't. They're unlikely to want to pay NBNco service prices if they don't have to, and the rest of the ISPs should want to them to continue with their FTTB services to place downward pressure on NBNco's service prices. 

 Sad state of affairs really, it will take a serious player to enter into the market in the future.
/ Agree with Mark Newton, unlikely to happen. The last (very) serious player to enter the market (UUNet/Wcom/Verizon) has a lot smaller profile now than when entered it in 2000. In the circles I've travelled in in the last 5 years or so, they've had virtually no presence, and I only know they still exist in Australia because I know people who still work there.

From: AusNOG [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net]On Behalf Of Shane Short
Sent: Thursday, 30 April 2015 3:54 PM
To: Damian Guppy
Cc: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] TPG vs the World    I think investing in a competitor to stop them being bought by another competitor, so you then don't have to compete with them is by definition anti-competitive (well it should be by the amount of times I said compet*).
Some analysts have mentioned this might be a shot across the bow to iiNet implying "take our deal over M2's, or we'll do this to you and block the M2 deal too".

Regardless of the end game, it's clear Teoh's got his shit in a twist about something and he's throwing his money around to get his way. Hopefully the anti-telstra commission step in and do something useful.

Regarding consolidation in the industry, it's bound to happen, if nothing else the POI/CVC charges are going to make it extremely difficult for national carriers to offer services everywhere-- but it does open another potential avenue; where you have smaller players focusing on their own little back yards, buying connections to specific POIs inside their market; almost like the dialup days before MegaPOP.

-Shane

Damian Guppy wrote:  
Lets just take TPG, M2, iiNet, Amcom, and Vocus, and merge them all into one giant company. That way we can stop all this fighting. We can take the names of the top two companys (TPG and M2) and combine their names to be T2.    Wait....    But seriously, it is clear TPG is just blocking the Vocus+Amcom stuff just because they don't want that competition. I wouldn't call it "toys being thrown out of the sandbox" but just very very aggressive corporate dealings by TPG. At some point they are bound to cross the line, and this could be that line. Consolidation in the telco sector is inevitable thanks to the NBN.     --Damian    On Thu, Apr 30, 2015 at 10:25 AM, Brad Peczka <brad at bradpeczka.com> wrote: 
TPGs campaign to own every customer and strand of fibre in Australia continues, with an announcement from Amcom this morning (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150430/pdf/42y7jb0tv5530k.pdf) stating that they intend to refer TPGs actions and purchase of a blocking stake to the ACCC.

There was a related article on ITNews (http://www.itnews.com.au/News/403386,tpg-boosts-amcom-stake-to-block-vocus-merger.aspx), in which James from Vocus makes some choice quotes - my personal favourite being "And that's the shame of it, one anti-competitive telco is affecting the value and the future of 9000 mums and dads. It's disgusting really."

>From the outside looking in, the whole TPG/Vocus/Amcom thing smacks of toys being thrown out of the sandbox because TPG can't have it all their way. The act of buying shares to block a merger without making a competing offer screams anti-competitive behaviour, though there's no undertaking that TPG won't make a bid for Amcom at a later date (and lower price?) if the Vocus deal gets scuttled?

Looks like interesting times ahead for all involved in the iiNet and Amcom deals...

Regards,
-Brad.
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