[AusNOG] "ISPs agree to graduated warnings for pirates"

[Mark Newton]

On Feb 23, 2015, at 8:13 PM, Skeeve Stevens <skeeve+ausnog at theispguy.com> wrote:

> I completely agree with you... but I am also pragmatic.
> The Copyright Holders are not going to back down…

It isn’t “pragmatic” to back down in the face of someone you think won’t back down.

You can bet your arse that the rights holders aren’t saying, “ISPs are not going to back down,” or using that somewhat unlikely observation as a reason to moderate their efforts.

More likely that they’re saying, “Those guys have literally no idea what they’re doing, no matter how many times we steamroll them, they keep lying down for more. Bombs away!”

> In the end, I think this is going to be a lot of fuss over very little.  With SVOD becoming commonplace, I think TV and movies will reach parity and with price pressure, the costs will be so low, it might just be easier to pay for it - certainly a lot of people will.
> Also, those who really want to download, will use VPN's and other new methods available and they won't be detected anyway... again, it becomes pointless.

Yes — So the rightsholders will observe infringement rates decreasing due to higher availability of licensed content, but they’ll claim in public that the actual reason infringement has decreased is due to their efforts, and they will approach politicians to say, “What you’ve done so far has worked, but you need to do more of it, we demand that you tighten the screws even further because we want more money.”  And you’ll fight precisely the same battle with higher stakes and a worse starting position and a track record of being a loser in two years time.

You’ve already observed that they’re not going to back down;  Do you think they’re going to stop just because they get what they want? Hahahahaha.

> No matter what happens, I think the scheme will be a failure - especially financially.

It’ll be a practical and financial failure for ISPs and the Government.  Seems to be working out just fine for rights holders.

  - mark


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