[AusNOG] NBN CO told to pretty itself up for bankers by 2017

[Joseph Goldman]

As an ISP based in an area that is now 99% FTTH covered (and copper 
cut-off dates starting next month through to march 2015), it is a great 
worry. I doubt they will allow the services to be cut, the economical 
effects of that could ruin a whole town/city in one action, but there 
could be so many unknowns, like will whoever buys the infrastructure 
have to buy all of it for the nation? Will they sell it area by area? 
POI by POI? Will the new body have government pricing regulations on 
them or will all the service have a 20% hike? (especially if it is sold 
off in parts, there is no one large monopoly to govern).

Not that I'm a business person, but I'd imagine NBNCo as it is, or even 
what it could be in the next 2 years given the current roll-out 
problems, would be a very wise investment for anyone who likes to keep 
their money?

On 14/05/14 12:04, Tony wrote:
> I'd tend to agree with this analysis. It looks set to become a white 
> elephant that both political parties will blame on each other.
>
> Of concern is what will happen with the existing fibre services that 
> have been rolled out (with copper cut off), wifi & satellite. My 
> understanding was that NBN needed to achieve critical mass for the 
> entire thing to be profitable and these won't be profitable by 
> themselves or even with the whatever they can make happen in the next 
> 2-3 years. This means either increasing prices on these services so 
> they are profitable or dropping them, or sell the assets off at peso's 
> to the dollar to someone else who can make a go of them (perhaps TPG ?!)
>
> Telstra & Optus are either going to negotiate quickly or slowly 
> depending on what they see as the best outcome for them. The govt has 
> backed themselves into a corner by setting a fixed date and so these 
> two carriers now have a massive advantage in any negotiations by 
> virtue of the fact that they can just delay and know that it will make 
> things more desperate for the other party.
>
> For something that started off with so much promise (widespread FTTH 
> deployment) it's now turned into a political farce as is unlikely to 
> do much of anything and we're likely to be stuck with copper for the 
> foreseeable future.
>
>
> regards,
> Tony.
>
>
> On Wed, 14 May 2014 11:42:53 +1000, Jake Anderson 
> <yahoo at vapourforge.com> wrote:
>
>> Probably not, I think it means the nbn will basically be sunk.
>> it'll be 2016 before they could get FTTN really going at speed 
>> assuming there are no issues.
>> That gives them 1 year of volume rollout before they will need to 
>> start the process of raising private debt, I don't think they will be 
>> getting very good terms particularly given the time-scale before they 
>> will need more funding to replace the FTTN network. Particularly if 
>> they let TPG roll their FTTB it'll pave the way for telstra and optus 
>> to do the same and they are going to have fibre within 1km of pretty 
>> much everywhere that matters.
>>
>>
>> Rolling ftth doesn't seem to be progressing at all well. Verison did 
>> it in the USA to the same number of premisis in a shorter time and 
>> for less cost so it seems to be physically possible.
>> If they focused on getting a core network of profitable FTTH in place 
>> they could perhaps leverage that asset to raise funds to roll it out 
>> further, or possibly just self fund a slower rollout into less 
>> profitable areas, but that won't happen if its sold off first.
>>
>>
>>
>> On 14/05/14 11:27, Nicholas Meredith wrote:
>>> Does this mean there could be hope of a FTTH deployment after all? 
>>> Not sure what to expect from NBN Co any more.
>>>
>>> -ndm
>>>
>>> Kind Regards,
>>>
>>>
>>> Nicholas Meredith
>>> nicholas at udhaonline.net <mailto:nicholas at udhaonline.net>
>>> Ph: 0430 042 913
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, May 14, 2014 at 10:45 AM, staticsafe <me at staticsafe.ca 
>>> <mailto:me at staticsafe.ca>> wrote:
>>>
>>>     "NBN CO told to pretty itself up for bankers by 2017"
>>> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/14/oz_gummint_sets_nbn_eol/
>>>
>>>     --
>>>     staticsafe
>>>     https://asininetech.com
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>>>
>>>
>>>
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