[AusNOG] NBN CO told to pretty itself up for bankers by 2017

[Tony]

I'd tend to agree with this analysis. It looks set to become a white  
elephant that both political parties will blame on each other.

Of concern is what will happen with the existing fibre services that have  
been rolled out (with copper cut off), wifi & satellite. My understanding  
was that NBN needed to achieve critical mass for the entire thing to be  
profitable and these won't be profitable by themselves or even with the  
whatever they can make happen in the next 2-3 years. This means either  
increasing prices on these services so they are profitable or dropping  
them, or sell the assets off at peso's to the dollar to someone else who  
can make a go of them (perhaps TPG ?!)

Telstra & Optus are either going to negotiate quickly or slowly depending  
on what they see as the best outcome for them. The govt has backed  
themselves into a corner by setting a fixed date and so these two carriers  
now have a massive advantage in any negotiations by virtue of the fact  
that they can just delay and know that it will make things more desperate  
for the other party.

For something that started off with so much promise (widespread FTTH  
deployment) it's now turned into a political farce as is unlikely to do  
much of anything and we're likely to be stuck with copper for the  
foreseeable future.


regards,
Tony.


On Wed, 14 May 2014 11:42:53 +1000, Jake Anderson <yahoo at vapourforge.com>  
wrote:

> Probably not, I think it means the nbn will basically be sunk.
> it'll be 2016 before they could get FTTN really going at speed assuming  
> there are no issues.
> That gives them 1 year of volume rollout before they will need to start  
> the process of raising private debt, I don't think they will be getting  
> very good terms particularly given the time-scale before they will need  
> more funding to replace the FTTN network. Particularly if they let TPG  
> roll their FTTB it'll pave the way for telstra and optus to do the same  
> and they are going to have fibre within 1km of pretty much everywhere  
> that matters.
>
>
> Rolling ftth doesn't seem to be progressing at all well. Verison did it  
> in the USA to the same number of premisis in a shorter time and for less  
> cost so it seems to be physically possible.
> If they focused on getting a core network of profitable FTTH in place  
> they could perhaps leverage that asset to raise funds to roll it out  
> further, or possibly just self fund a slower rollout into less  
> profitable areas, but that won't happen if its sold off first.
>
>
>
> On 14/05/14 11:27, Nicholas Meredith wrote:
>> Does this mean there could be hope of a FTTH deployment after all? Not  
>> sure what to expect from NBN Co any more.
>>
>> -ndm
>>
>> Kind Regards,
>>
>>
>> Nicholas Meredith
>> nicholas at udhaonline.net <mailto:nicholas at udhaonline.net>
>> Ph: 0430 042 913
>>
>>
>> On Wed, May 14, 2014 at 10:45 AM, staticsafe <me at staticsafe.ca  
>> <mailto:me at staticsafe.ca>> wrote:
>>
>>     "NBN CO told to pretty itself up for bankers by 2017"
>>     http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/14/oz_gummint_sets_nbn_eol/
>>
>>     --
>>     staticsafe
>>     https://asininetech.com
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