[AusNOG] Netflix, AWS and Softlayer vs. Australia

[Oz Nog]

02.12.2014, 01:20, "Tim Butler" <tim at conetix.com.au>:
> In regards to your predictions, I think they're a little off target.
> Number 1 has been occurring for many years. Data prices have been
> dropping (although it's still not as cheap as the US) and anything
> latency sensitive has always been hosted in Australia.
   The thing is, there are price reductions and there are price reductions.
   Case in point: SIM cards in Myanmar

   SIM cards in Myanmar used to cost $2000 (!). It didn't matter much when prices fell to $200, but it sure did matter when prices fell to $1.5! Then suddenly millions of people got connected when anybody could afford it.

   Back in the stone age, something similar happened in the US/EU when IP transit prices fell to $10 per Mbps. Suddenly a lot of web applications became financially viable and the web as we now know it was born. We are about to hit the same upward curve of the hockey stick in Australia.

> Number 2, everyone's been predicting the "death" of local hosting
> companies for years now. It was the same thing when Amazon hit Australia
> yet I haven't seen any of the major players shrink nor go out of
> business.
   Sure, a rising tide lifts all boats. However, you are still going to have to watch out for the swells of the ocean liners.
   I guess there will always be room for the small deli businesses of the local hosting market, however the big box stores will be defining the market.

> There's only a small percentage of companies who have data requirements
> in the multiple TB ranges.
   True enough, but it's that small percentage that matters for the local ISPs. I think it's wrong to just focus on the general hosting market and small scale content origination costs, because it that 1% of large scale origins that's going to drive 80% of ISP local backhaul costs.

Cheers,

Baz