[AusNOG] IPv4

[Skeeve Stevens]

Yeah, I see your point... which is why I am in the same state of mind,
being 'yeah whatever, get over it people'.

When ISOC was going all nuts over IPv6 Day and running around rar raring
v6, I couldn't care less to be honest.  My view is that ipv6
is inevitable and we just simply have to wait for those laggerts to see the
error of their ways by not doing it sooner.

v4 is around $16ish per IP on transactions I've seen lately... but that is
only for larger blocks of /20+. But I do expect that it will rise $2-5 per
IP per year by the end of this year, maybe $7 next year and it will go
stupid after that.

Right now there are people with excess space, like me with the /20 I sold
recently... but pretty soon most space not actively being used will start
to run out... and the prices could do anything.  I even see business
acquisitions happening based on address space stock... maybe next year.

...Skeeve

*Skeeve Stevens - *eintellego Networks Pty Ltd
skeeve at eintellegonetworks.com ; www.eintellegonetworks.com

Phone: 1300 239 038; Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve

facebook.com/eintellegonetworks ;  <http://twitter.com/networkceoau>
linkedin.com/in/skeeve

twitter.com/networkceoau ; blog: www.network-ceo.net


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On Sun, Mar 3, 2013 at 7:33 PM, Mark Newton <newton at atdot.dotat.org> wrote:

>
>
> On 03/03/2013, at 18:14, Skeeve Stevens <
> skeeve+ausnog at eintellegonetworks.com> wrote:
>
> Was v4 allocations screwed? I don't know.  We didn't know what was going
> to happen 20 years ago...
>
>
> Yeah we did. That's why we implemented CIDR in the early 1990s and got
> cracking on IPng.
>
> Any suggestion that what's happening right now wasn't both foreseeable *and
> actually foreseen* 20 years ago is pretty revisionist!
>
> I think that's why some of us are pretty relaxed about what's happening
> with IPv4 at the moment: we've all had a lot of time to come to grips with
> it, we've all made our predictions about how it'd play out, we all knew
> what'd happen if the industry didn't do anything about it. They didn't do
> anything about it, and now it's all coming true. It's not some kind of
> surprise that everyone is supposed to panic about, though.
>
> Things will get a lot worse before they get better: CGNs have barely even
> begun to be deployed yet, and there'll be a whole mountain of pain, anguish
> and teeth gnashing coming from them when they're commonplace.
>
> Meanwhile everyone keeps arguing about the last /8 as if it's important or
> something; in a world where you can get all the IPv4 address space you want
> by simply spending money on buying it.
>
> The price is currently low. Supply and demand will make the cost of
> acquiring IPv4 inexorably rise until it exceeds the cost of switching to
> IPv6, at which point demand will start to fall off, and a new equilibrium
> will be met. The price over time will look like a bell curve with a long
> tail, and we're juuuuust starting to climb the left hand side...
>
>     - mark
>
>
>
>
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