[AusNOG] Simon Hackett's presentation from Comms Day yesterday - NBN fibre on copper prices

Fri Jul 19 13:32:54 EST 2013

There is also that major point made before, that some people simply require a PSTN service that is reliable and guaranteed.

While anybody on this list is capable of purchasing a UPS, connecting your ATA / VoIP phone to it and ensuring your NTD / Router / other required network equipment is also battery backup supplied, most users aren't.

Explaining that to people is hard, putting in the full battery / NTD etc. at the time just makes it easier and allows people to get a (mostly) like for like swap out.

I agree the NTD etc. costs additional money, and personally I would be happy to opt-in for a GPON capable router from my supplier, there are a lot of reasons that approach can't apply to everybody.

This decision wouldn't have been made lightly, I'm sure numerous people debated the pro's and con's for some time and from what I have read on this list, we are doing the same.

It's the inescapable fact that it is just the only feasible approach for most people to get switched over with a minimal amount of fuss that you can't do anything about.

On another topic, I too would question the actual figures on his presentation, I know my ADSL connection has changed over the last few years but my costs have gone up significantly too, somebody else stated it before, but if you look at it mathematically (from a retail costs perspective that I have personally paid)

Dial up @ 56k: $25-30 (got cheaper after ADSL got big but this is what I was paying prior to that)
ADSL1 @ 8mbps: $50-60 (minimum, low cap)
ADSL2 @ 24mbps: $70-80 (moderate, high cap, my area of town is classed as regional by my provider so +$10 for that)
NBN fibre @ 100mbps: $100 (approx, comparable cap)

You get a 2x increase in cost from dial up to ADSL with a massive jump in bandwidth, then a fractional cost increase for 3x the bandwidth, then a 4x bandwidth increase for 25% cost increase.

Seems to be about in line at the moment and that's not even factoring in better plans, upload speeds, stability of fibre etc etc.

If you guys were my managers I would make you a nice chart but you can all see the NBN plans provide a greater gain in value than in cost.

There is not much else I can add that hasn't already been covered already.....

PS - this debate has been really interesting, seeing a lot of different views has been enlightening, feel free to question / debate me on any points I've raised if necessary, it's been an enjoyable thread and I'd like to see it continue if there is more to say!

Thanks,
Ayden Beeson

From: AusNOG [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Matthew Moyle-Croft
Sent: Friday, 19 July 2013 1:13 PM
To: Lincoln Dale
Cc: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] Simon Hackett's presentation from Comms Day yesterday - NBN fibre on copper prices

I think for people on this list there's nothing particularly scary about acquiring a GPON device.

If we were talking completely greenfields, I'd suggest it'd be a fine way to go, but it's not, it's brownfield, we have to move from Cu based services to GPON on a large scale and in a, for the telco wireline world, fairly rapid pace.

It's not solving the problem that needs solving - which is to find a way to migrate people across in a simple and reliable fashion and most people have no understanding of how to acquire a CPE, configure it etc.

I just don't buy the argument that it'd be cheaper - it just appears to shift the costs around and make some things harder.  NBN doesn't need harder at the moment.

MMC

On 18/07/2013, at 7:50 PM, Lincoln Dale <ltd at aristanetworks.com<mailto:ltd at aristanetworks.com>> wrote:

On Fri, Jul 19, 2013 at 12:25 PM, Matthew Moyle-Croft <mmc at mmc.com.au<mailto:mmc at mmc.com.au>> wrote:
 I'd argue it's cheaper to do what NBNCo are doing and put an active bit of kit in.

"Cheaper" for whom?
One thing I never liked about a NTU is its "yet another box" that requires power 24/7.
I like Simon's idea because basically it gives more flexibility and its one less thing.

Some back of envelope calculations.

I've not seen actual power consumption data for the NTU however based on its stated battery (12V7Ah) and that you get "2-3 hours" out of 50% SoC, that equates to 16.8Wh/hr power consumption.
Lets say power brick is 80% efficient then 21W actual usage x 24 hours x 365 days = 183kWh/annum x 10M premises @ 20c/kWh = $367M.

Ok thats only $36/annum/premises but its what you/I are having to pay in power.
No doubt having a GPON interface on a router doesn't come "for free" either but I bet that could be done on a CPE for 1/10th that power number when you need a CPE device anyway.

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