[AusNOG] Simon Hackett's presentation from Comms Day yesterday - NBN fibre on copper prices

[Glen Greig]

His opening statement leads people to believe differently.

"Just ahh, to frame what I'm gonna talk about today, I'm not talking 
about it as a member or Internode or Iinet, I'm talking about it as what 
I.. about my viewes of the NBN, as what I would describe as a wide old 
bird of the industry".

Glen

On 18.07.2013 18:41, Paul Brooks wrote:
> Remember, it was a conference dedicated to whats good for wholesale
> services and service providers - not what might be good for users, or
> the societal good.
>  Seen with that filter, its reasonable.
>
> -------------------------
>  FROM: ausnog at greig.net.au
>  SENT: Thu Jul 18 17:50:44 AEST 2013
>  TO: ausnog at lists.ausnog.net
>  SUBJECT: Re: [AusNOG] Simon Hacketts presentation from Comms Day
> yesterday - NBN fibre on copper prices
>
> Couple of not very well thought out thoughts about the presentation.
>
> The presentation starts off with a very scary graph and a premise. 
> The
>
> graph shows that the NBN prices will go up and up and the current
> ADSL2+
> price will remain fixed. The premise is that up until now,
> communications prices have always come down. Now, this is a sales
> tactic; and that's exactly what this is, a sales presentation, he is
> selling an idea. Tell a scary story, then come in with the wonderful
> solution. But before we even look at the solution, is the scary story
> even true.
>
> Well, first, let’s look at the premise, prices have always gone
> down.
> Really? Sure, I remember paying $6/hour for Internet access and that
> did
> come down, but I recall for a long time paying much less than
> $30/month
> for Internet access and that has gone up and up over the past decade,
> the same with my other communications
>  like
> mobile phones. Is the idea
> that communications prices have always come down really true? Not per
> Mbps, but per consumer?
>
> Now the graph it's self, honestly I couldn't be bothered calculating
> the NBN line for myself because the ADSL2+ line to me just seems
> unbelievable. In 2040, the wholesale cost of a line will be exactly
> the
> same as today? Pure inflation at an average rate of 4.4% (The average
> rate from 1980-2010) should mean that today’s $20 will be $72.94 in
> 2040. All of a sudden that super scary story starts sounding a lot
> more
> reasonable and we are in less need to be sold a solution. Funny that.
>
> Then we have the comments about NBN charging for them doing nothing.
> How so? There are bottlenecks in the network. This isn't dark fibre,
> this is a GPON network and an aggregation network. Greater bandwidth
> comes at greater expense to NBN. What’s funny is at this point, he's
>
> talking a
>  bout
> wanting less interference of his data flows by NBN, and
> then later in the presentation is calling for MORE aggregation by
> reducing the number of POIs. You can’t have it both ways.
>
> Not needing PSTN? No need for battery backup? We can just use best
> effort VoIP? The case of Sam Bolding is forgotten so quickly. There
> are
> people out there that require phones as a matter of life and death.
> Many
> of the existing PSTN-like providers make you sign wavers ensuring you
> understand that their service IS NOT a Standard Telephone Service
> because they cannot provide the availability required for people who
> need it. Let’s just put the responsibility for a vital service in
> the
> hands of a non-tech savvy elderly person to ensure they can get an
> ambulance when they are in the middle of a medical emergency.
>
> He describes himself as a wise old bird of the industry. What
> industry?
> The telecommunications industr
>  y or
> the Internet industry, in my mind,
> they are two different things. One is open and free, has been very
> innovative, but can also happily ignore many of the problems faced by
> the telecommunications industry which by necessity has required heavy
> regulation. I don't think it's wise to use the same approach building
> a
> telecommunications network as building parts of the Internet.
>
> Just my thoughts.
>
> Glen
>
> On 18.07.2013 10:45, George Fong wrote:
>> Hi All,
>>
>> If you haven't already seen it, here's a link to Simon's thought
>> provoking and challenging presentation at Comms Day. Is NBNCo doing
>> it
>> too hard, too complex and too expensive?
>>
>> http://simonhackett.com/2013/07/17/nbn-fibre-on-a-copper-budget [1]/
>>
>>
>> Cheers
>> g.
>>
>> --
>> Doing Dry July again! https://au.dryjuly.com/profile/georgefong [2]
>> [1]
>>
>> Just remember, wherever you go .... there you are.
>
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>
>  --
>  Sent unplugged
>
> Links:
> ------
> [1] http://simonhackett.com/2013/07/17/nbn-fibre-on-a-copper-budget
> [2] https://au.dryjuly.com/profile/georgefong
> [3] http://lists.ausnog.net/mailman/listinfo/ausnog