[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

Wed Mar 14 12:25:24 EST 2012

Hey Matthew / MarkN,

Any info you have would be helpful regarding the setup of the radius reply
attributes you used for the Billion 7800NL routers.

As I've got this working with a Cisco router using DSL Dialer.

I'm trying to find out the Radius Attributes the router expects, to apply
the IPv6 address to the WAN interface.

I've tried the following:

NAS-IPv6-Address

Framed-Interface-Id

Login-IPv6-Host

I'm routing the IPv6 subnet with the attribute: Framed-IPv6-Prefix

On my LNS router I can see the IPv6 route is being sent to the router, but
if I look at the interface on the router there's no 'IPv6 address'.

Happy to take this offline - don't want to bombard the group.

Kind regards,

   Ryan van Klaveren

From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net
[mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Matthew Moyle-Croft
Sent: Wednesday, 14 March 2012 10:37 AM
To: Skeeve Stevens
Cc: ausnog at ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

Eh?

How to run IPv6 on broadband is a series of standards from the Broadband
Forum.  It's fact not conjecture.

IPv6 to residential is fairly straightforward these days - you can get all
the bits and make it happen.  Internode (where MarkN and I and others did
this) is existence proof that you can build production grade IPv6
broadband on a large scale.  I'm sure both MarkN and I can help explain
how to do it for anyone who wants to try.

This moaning and complaining about it being hard is so 2009.   Move on
people stop finding lame excuses or at least stop making the problem worse
by ignoring it.   It's like losing weight.  There's no easy fix and no
magic pill coming, you actually have to get on and do it.

MMC

On 14/03/2012, at 9:33 AM, Skeeve Stevens wrote:

Looks like we agree.

My worry is that the rush to deal with IPv6 migration methods will be a
lot like the old days when moving from 28.8 to 56k... and all the ensuing
incompatibilities because vendors couldn't wait with Hayes, USR all coming
up with their own standards like V.Fast, V.FC then K56Flex, X2 and so
on... 

What will be the transition versions that carriers like Cisco may come up
with which are proprietary and non-compatible with other vendors.  Will it
happen? Of course it will... who will be first?

...Skeeve

Skeeve Stevens, CEO

eintellego Pty Ltd

skeeve at eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net <http://www.eintellego.net/> 

Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954

Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve

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twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve

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The Experts Who The Experts Call

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On Wed, Mar 14, 2012 at 09:48, Mark Newton <newton at atdot.dotat.org> wrote:

On Wed, Mar 14, 2012 at 01:03:55AM +1100, Skeeve Stevens wrote:

 > There is NO killer app for IPv6 yet and there is unlikely to be
 > one for quite sometime.

Hmm.

As standards-breaking, expensive, end-user-hating CGN garbage gets
more and more entrenched into IPv4 networks, the killer app for
IPv6 will be, "Not needing to deal with the mess that is IPv4."

There are a couple of other predictions I'll add to your scenario
which might make it a bit less gloomy.

I've done a couple of conference presentations where I've described
the post-exhaustion IPv4 market as similar to the market we'd have
if the last oil well had totally dried up, but we still had a
few million barrels floating around the oceans undelivered in
tankers.

Growing demand, zero additional supply...  sounds a lot like IPv4,
right?

Things I'd expect to see:

 1 The price of oil would go through the roof.  It'd still be
   available, but at prices that only insane people would be able
   to afford.

 2 The high price would stimulate new innovative techniques for
   doing what we need to do without oil, or with less oil.  So
   as the price rose, more efficient use of the resource would
   see the retail prices for products that use oil grow at a slower
   rate.

 3 As prices grow, alternatives which are currently uneconomic would
   start to look pretty good.  e.g., All those people raving on about
   how electric cars have no future because they're such an expensive
   mode of transport would look pretty silly when petrol costs $100
   per litre, and you can recharge your expensive-to-purchase electric
   car from flat for less than ten bucks, making opex dominate capex.

 4 The maturing of suddenly-cheaper alternatives would moderate demand
   for the exhausted resource.  Towards the end of the transition,
   I'd expect is price to be pretty low, because we'd be in a state
   where society didn't actually feel like they wanted/needed it anymore.

So, my predictive trends:

IPv4 price will spike, drive towards a peak, then plateau as CGN
technologies reach the market.

CGN will be more of a pain in the arse than anyone is capable of
predicting now, and will add opex to networks in the form of support,
rebuilding applications to work reliably, and all kinds of other
"fringe" artefacts that nobody has considered.

As opex increases, eventually CFO's will start to look towards IPv6
migration as a way of getting out of the IPv4 hellhole.  "You mean
that if we start migrating our customers to v6 now, and do it
fast enough, we'll never need to buy another upgrade for our CGN
appliances?  Get to it, your deliverable is due next Friday."

IPv4 demand will then start to slacken, as IPv6 becomes mainstream.

Corollary:  If you're selling IPv4 address space, there'll be a
pretty narrow window when you'll fetch the best price.  It isn't now;
but it sure as hell isn't ten years from now either.

 - mark

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