[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

[Skeeve Stevens]

Looks like we agree.

My worry is that the rush to deal with IPv6 migration methods will be a lot
like the old days when moving from 28.8 to 56k... and all the ensuing
incompatibilities because vendors couldn't wait with Hayes, USR all coming
up with their own standards like V.Fast, V.FC then K56Flex, X2 and so on...

What will be the transition versions that carriers like Cisco may come up
with which are proprietary and non-compatible with other vendors.  Will it
happen? Of course it will... who will be first?

...Skeeve

*Skeeve Stevens, CEO*
eintellego Pty Ltd
skeeve at eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net

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The Experts Who The Experts Call
Juniper - Cisco – Brocade - IBM



On Wed, Mar 14, 2012 at 09:48, Mark Newton <newton at atdot.dotat.org> wrote:

> On Wed, Mar 14, 2012 at 01:03:55AM +1100, Skeeve Stevens wrote:
>
>  > There is NO killer app for IPv6 yet and there is unlikely to be
>  > one for quite sometime.
>
> Hmm.
>
> As standards-breaking, expensive, end-user-hating CGN garbage gets
> more and more entrenched into IPv4 networks, the killer app for
> IPv6 will be, "Not needing to deal with the mess that is IPv4."
>
> There are a couple of other predictions I'll add to your scenario
> which might make it a bit less gloomy.
>
> I've done a couple of conference presentations where I've described
> the post-exhaustion IPv4 market as similar to the market we'd have
> if the last oil well had totally dried up, but we still had a
> few million barrels floating around the oceans undelivered in
> tankers.
>
> Growing demand, zero additional supply...  sounds a lot like IPv4,
> right?
>
> Things I'd expect to see:
>
>  1 The price of oil would go through the roof.  It'd still be
>    available, but at prices that only insane people would be able
>    to afford.
>
>  2 The high price would stimulate new innovative techniques for
>    doing what we need to do without oil, or with less oil.  So
>    as the price rose, more efficient use of the resource would
>    see the retail prices for products that use oil grow at a slower
>    rate.
>
>  3 As prices grow, alternatives which are currently uneconomic would
>    start to look pretty good.  e.g., All those people raving on about
>    how electric cars have no future because they're such an expensive
>    mode of transport would look pretty silly when petrol costs $100
>    per litre, and you can recharge your expensive-to-purchase electric
>    car from flat for less than ten bucks, making opex dominate capex.
>
>  4 The maturing of suddenly-cheaper alternatives would moderate demand
>    for the exhausted resource.  Towards the end of the transition,
>    I'd expect is price to be pretty low, because we'd be in a state
>    where society didn't actually feel like they wanted/needed it anymore.
>
> So, my predictive trends:
>
> IPv4 price will spike, drive towards a peak, then plateau as CGN
> technologies reach the market.
>
> CGN will be more of a pain in the arse than anyone is capable of
> predicting now, and will add opex to networks in the form of support,
> rebuilding applications to work reliably, and all kinds of other
> "fringe" artefacts that nobody has considered.
>
> As opex increases, eventually CFO's will start to look towards IPv6
> migration as a way of getting out of the IPv4 hellhole.  "You mean
> that if we start migrating our customers to v6 now, and do it
> fast enough, we'll never need to buy another upgrade for our CGN
> appliances?  Get to it, your deliverable is due next Friday."
>
> IPv4 demand will then start to slacken, as IPv6 becomes mainstream.
>
> Corollary:  If you're selling IPv4 address space, there'll be a
> pretty narrow window when you'll fetch the best price.  It isn't now;
> but it sure as hell isn't ten years from now either.
>
>  - mark
>
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