[AusNOG] My Predictions for the ISP Industry

[Skeeve Stevens]

So, as a continuation to my previous reply, here are my predictions on what
will most likely happen in this region (not just Australia).

- APNIC runs out of IPv4 (We are here)
- ISPs start to run out of IPv4 (We're almost here)
- ISPs try to buy IPv4 from those who have it spare *(Starting to happen
now - March 2012 - mark the date)*
- Cost of IPv4 starts to rocket like gold (from now onwards)
- At some point they realise it will cost less to build solutions to extend
IPv4 - such as Carrier Grade NAT (CGN)/Large Scale NAT (LSN) technologies -
all of which are evil and very broken - but there is no choice
- ISPs will demand their vendors come up with CGN/LSN solutions - Vendors
will love it and charge a premium for broken products.  Some may even come
up with standards breaking solutions which do actually work.
- ISPs will implement broken CGN/LSN solutions which will prolong the life
of their IPv4 pools
- ISPs will start to charge end users to have a real IPv4 address - to pay
for the acquisition of more
- Many end-users will end up with reduced functionality until they can move
to IPv6
- Some ISPs will start to use address space that does not belong to them.
 People start to scramble to keep their networks going
- Some ISPs will start to implement native IPv6 long after others to catch
up but will find their customers have gone elsewhere
- Users who don't like the broken-ness will replace their old routers with
IPv6 ones and go to ISPs who have native IPv6

In the end, the end users don't care about IP addressing (Generalising -
98% don't). They want to type a name in, and get what they want.  It
doesn't matter to them how it works. Businesses may care a bit more, but
unlikely.  There is NO killer app for IPv6 yet and there is unlikely to be
one for quite sometime.

To all the ISPs out there who are waiting on a business case for IPv6 - you
are fools... I am sorry, but it is as simple as that.  There will NEVER
EVER be any valid business care that matters "right now", the time when you
need to be thinking about it - except one - Staying in business.

But, it will take most ISPs a year or two to fully integrate IPv6 into
their networks, and those who haven't started doing it yet, might as well
be planning to shut down their businesses because in the next year or two,
it will be too late... smart ISPs like Internode will have already done it
(but probably still have work to do).  Telstra has been spending millions
on it for years now to get ready for it - but they are in a different
position to everyone else - they HAVE the money to do whatever solutions
they need to do to survive.

At some point there is going to be many people selling snake oil, promising
to make things better, selling dodgy solutions that many will buy into and
end up in a mess and go bust.

At eintellego we've been implementing IPv6 solutions for our customers for
2 years now, but even many of them have only partially embraced IPv6 - no
matter what we tell them.  It is our experience that it takes a good year
to fully get up to speed, even in a small ISPs network.  Things that need
to be considered are:

- Transit (Native IPv6)
- Core network (Routers, Switches, Firewalls, Appliances)
- Server Operating Systems (Windows, Linux, VMware, etc)
- Application awareness (DNS, Mail, Web, Authentication, etc etc)
- Operational Support Systems (Provisioning, Accounting, Network
Management, etc)
- Device support - KVM, PDU, Printers, VoIP, Cameras, Building Management,
NTU's, blah blah blah
- Access technologies - Dial (its still used!), xDSL, Ethernet (easiest!),
Wireless, Mobile, NBN (can it even do v6 yet?!)
- Redeveloping user facing systems (DNS, web, etc etc)
- Training staff - helpdesk, provisioning staff, engineers, etc

All of which has to be paid for - by management who has no idea what on
earth is going on and why they need to pay for it.  They will ask for the
business case; the techies will look confused as they try to justify the
coming armageddon to the bean counters.....

Even the little tier 3 reseller ISPs have most of the above list that they
need to be seriously considering.

Many of the tiny-small ISPs I know about need a large part of
infrastructure replaced - and they are the least likely to be able to
afford it.

We've had no more IPv4 available from APNIC for over a year now.  There are
still only a few carriers in Australia who are offering IPv6 - some
countries still don't even have it at all - especially in the Pacific
region.

What is the easy way out?  There isn't any.  Some of my fellow directors at
The Internet Society of Australia are still quite passionate about IPv6
evangelism... me... I'm rather meh (whatever) about it these days.  The way
I view things is that IPv6 is going to come, whether anyone likes it or
not, and this situation is akin to telling people that they should have
safe sex or shouldn't smoke.  Many people - those who think they know
better - they need to experience what is going to happen for themselves.

Speaking on behalf of me, an industry veteran, the CEO of eintellego, a
Director of ISOC-AU and the ISP Liaison, community member, and whatever
other roles I do.


 *Skeeve Stevens, CEO*
eintellego Pty Ltd
skeeve at eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net

Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954

Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve

facebook.com/eintellego

twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve

PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia

The Experts Who The Experts Call
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