[AusNOG] iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

[Skeeve Stevens]

Yeah, I didn't even think how it will smash the hell out of 3G/4G mobile
broadband networks.

The TIO complaints could be huge when people all run out of cap and have
to buy more.

I know my iPhone alone has 8Gb of Photos on it.. And I don't even sync the
20Gb I have in my iPhoto to the iPhone/iPadŠ much less the iPhone video's
I've shot which are about 1Gig per 5minutes or so.

Damn.

ŠSkeeve

--
Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
skeeve at eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
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--
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- Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade







-----Original Message-----
From: Bevan Slattery <Bevan.Slattery at nextdc.com>
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2011 03:59:00 +0000
To: Skeeve Stevens <skeeve at eintellego.net>, "'ausnog at ausnog.net'"
<ausnog at ausnog.net>
Subject: RE: iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?

>Good thinking Skeeve.  From my view:
>
>- Wireless/Mobile networks will strain much the same way they did when
>the iPhone first came out
>- Increase in complaints to TIO due to network congestion issues
>- Increase in complaints to TIO for excess data usage particularly on
>wireless networks (as punters don't realise how much they're pushing to
>the cloud)
>- Fixed line data will increase due to people realising it's best to
>upload using home broadband via wifi
>- Corporate fixed line may also increase as people bring in devices to
>the office to "upload" and sync (initially)
>
>There have been few "large" incidents of recent years in which net access
>slowed to a crawl due to congestion.  I remember watching PIPE IX during
>the afternoon of Steve Irwin's death as it being something that created
>some issues for a few networks.  Networks are more resilient and scalable
>and at least there is more competition in bandwidth.
>
>But I agree Skeeve -  I feel this will be different.  There are probably
>2 million (wild guess) iDevices out there.  If 10% sync in the first few
>days and assuming each one had 3GB to upload that's 600TB's or 20,000Mb/s
>of demand for those 3 days.  Fortunately everyone buys bandwidth on a
>symmetrical basis.  So the upload should not generally be an issue from
>an external bandwidth network dimensioning perspective.  But the access
>will be a little more challenging.
>
>This is where the NBN will have their first "real" opportunity to show a
>real example of its benefits.  If I worked in the NBN marketing
>department, I'd just get two (2) real people sync their iPhones to the
>cloud with a timer and record the demonstration.  Obviously there are two
>(2) issues with this with the first being the commercial hobbling of the
>new network so you only get 1Mbps upstream on the base product and the
>second is that you only get to use your NBN connection when you're at
>home.
>
>This is where the mobile networks will fill the gap.  A gap that maybe a
>little too far in the early days at least until they can again
>re-dimension their networks to handle the new paradigm.
>
>Cheers
>
>[b]
>
>PS:  Have heard some really interesting thinking from a major telco and
>the deployment of alternative wireless solutions to help with this type
>of event and future ones.
>
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net
>[mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Skeeve Stevens
>Sent: Saturday, 3 September 2011 8:44 PM
>To: 'ausnog at ausnog.net'
>Subject: [AusNOG] iCloud - Is it going to hurt access providers?
>
>Hey all,
>
>I've been thinking about the impact that iCloud (by Apple) will have on
>the Internet.  
>
>My guess is that 99% of consumer internet access is Asymmetrical (DSL,
>Cable, wireless, etc) and iCloud when launched will 'upload' obscene
>amounts of gigs of music, tv, backups, email, photos, documents/data and
>so on to their data centres.
>
>Now, don't misunderstand me, I love the concept of iCloud, as I do
>DropBox, but from an Access Providers perspective, I'm thinking this
>might be a 'bad thing'.
>
>
>From what I can see there are some key issues:
>
>*	Users with plans that count upload and download together.
>*	The speed of Asymmetric tail technology such as DSL
>*	The design of access provider backhaul (from DSLAM to core) metrics
>*	The design of some transit metrics
>
>So basically the potential issue is that a large residential provider
>could have thousands of users connect to iCloud, their connections slowed
>because of uploading data, burning their included bandwidth caps, slowing
>down the backhaul segment of the network, and as residential providers
>are mostly download, some purchase transit from their upstreams in an
>symmetric fashion.
>
>This post is really just to prompt discussion if people think there is
>anything to actually worry about, or there are other implications that
>I've not really thought of yet.
>
>
>...Skeeve
>
>--
>Skeeve Stevens, CEO - eintellego Pty Ltd - The Networking Specialists
>
>skeeve at eintellego.net ; www.eintellego.net
>
>Phone: 1300 753 383 ; Fax: (+612) 8572 9954
>
>Cell +61 (0)414 753 383 ; skype://skeeve
>
>facebook.com/eintellego or eintellego at facebook.com
>
>twitter.com/networkceoau ; www.linkedin.com/in/skeeve
>
>PO Box 7726, Baulkham Hills, NSW 1755 Australia
>
>
>
>
>--
>
>eintellego - The Experts that the Experts call
>
>- Juniper - HP Networking - Cisco - Brocade
>