[AusNOG] IPv4 Exhaustion date changed to December.

[John.Gibbins at csiro.au]

Hi Karl,

I have been thinking that December was a possible date for IANA exhaustion for the last month or two.  It was based on the recent allocation of /8s by IANA (dates are approx):

20/1 2 allocated to APNIC
14/2 2 allocated to ARIN
12/4 2 allocated to APNIC
 9/5 2 allocated to RIPE
 4/6 2 allocated to LACNIC

If we treat the period 21/1 to 4/6, we see that /8s are being allocated at a rate of 8 in 134 days or about 1 in 17 days.  Once there are only 5 /8s left, they will be automatically allocated, so there are effectively only 11 /8s left to allocate before exhaustion.  At this rate, the 11 will take six months to allocate, so we run out in December.

The problem with this calculation is that the allocation rate is not smooth.  It may just be a coincidence that four different RIRs needed extra allocation within a short period of time;  just like multiple buses coming at once or as I observe at our house, all the tissue boxes run out at once!

GeoffH has done lots of work on this, so his predictions are likely to have better assumptions than mine, but I'm not sure that the current Aug 11 predictions allows for the last 5 being autoallocated.

What impact IANA running out will have on companies requesting allocations is yet to be seen.  We can only imagine that RIRs will run down faster than historical predictions would indicate.

regards
johng
--
John Gibbins
Acting Team Leader | IT Security Operations
CSIRO Information Management & Technology (IM&T)
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-----Original Message-----
From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net [mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Karl Kloppenborg
Sent: Monday, 21 June 2010 1:06 PM
To: ausnog at ausnog.net
Subject: [AusNOG] IPv4 Exhaustion date changed to December.

Hey Noggers,

After having a morning geezer on whirlpool news page, I noticed this:
http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/350344/run_ipv4_addresses_could_exhaust_supply_by_december/?fp=4&fpid=5

Is this true? and if so can someone please provide me with IANA or APNIC statistical reports so I can further push IPv6 rollout on the company I work for.

I need ammo people! AMMO!!!

Cheers,
Karl.
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