[AusNOG] Less than 10% of IPv4 Addresses Remain Unallocated

[Geoff Huston]

On 21/01/2010, at 8:57 AM, <John.Gibbins at csiro.au> wrote:

> On Wednesday, 20 January 2010 9:48 PM Noel Butler said:
> ...
>> Yep, and I still stand by at _LEAST_ 2015 before we seriously get close
>> to looking like running out of ipv4, maybe longer than that.
>> There's around 400 million IP's stilll up for grabs.
> 
> On Tuesday (about the time we dropped below "10%"), the number of available addresses reported by NetCore jumped from 360M to 402M (see http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/).  I can't believe that 40M addresses have suddenly been recovered, so I suspect a bug somewhere.  Bit suspicious that the increase from 360 to 400 is in the same ratio as 9% to 10% but is an increase instead of a decrease.


I don't know how netcore calculates its pool data.

IANA has 19 /8s left in its pool, plus 5 for the final /8 - thats 352,321,536 addresses in total. 

If you take out the 5 final /8s that will be allocated using a different policy framework, then you have 318,767,104 addresses left with IANA.

The RIRs collectively have 18.3574 /8s, or 307,986,064 addresses in their pools today.

So right now there are a total of 660,307,600 unallocated IPv4 addresses, of which 576,421,520 are being used for general IPv4 address allocations under the current policy framework.

The average global consumption rate is some 528,597 IPv4 addresses per day. Assuming perfect distribution and uniform runout, then we have got some 1090 days left, or a little under 3 years. But thats a false assumption, as the RIR pools are managed across 5 separate communities, and the community that is the highest volume address consumer (Asia Pacific) will exhaust its pool earlier than this date by about 4 - 5 months. 

  Geoff

   Usual pro-forma disclaimer: No - I am not speaking for APNIC here, and the data is all public data.