[AusNOG] NBN Co CEO Quigley Speech 20100818

[Matthew Moyle-Croft]

On 19/08/2010, at 12:54 PM, Stephen Carter wrote:



My calculator tells me that applying the current Bond Rate of about 5% just to fund and not repay the debt and repair the network that’s at least $6billion per year in funding costs and then add the operational costs of x.  Divide that number by subscribers (22.4 million divided by 2.3 persons per household ABS stat and assume 50% uptake ”yes there will be competition”) is a cost of at least $60 per connected user per month before you start to repay the huge debt. This is lower than what CSP’s are charging for the circuits (Internodes’ plans  start at $30per month). That’s a Net Loss of $30 per month per connection. That’s a possible net loss before operating expenses or retirement of debt of $3,000,000,000 per year. How is that ever going to repay the debt?

Let's assume your numbers are right:   As long as the revenue figure is okay, it doesn't mean EVERYONE has to pay the same amount NOR that the entire revenue stream is coming from residential.   Consider that more modelling than a simple average is required.

Many people (families with kids not industry) I have spoken to are planning on reducing or cancelling their home internet connections, as they just need occasional 3G style internet access and get the internet they need when they are at work. i.e. they intend to have no “fixed line” internet at home at all. My point that using the whole population as an index/base value if very misleading actually very wrong.

You also don't seem to want to consider change of behaviour over time.  My experience is that people are wanting more and faster internet as it becomes our primary delivery mechanism for entertainment, information, etc.   3G/Wireless will never replace fixed line, only compliment it.  Internet access growth for speed/downloads continues to increase.   Certainly yesterday's plan releases from a few ISPs demonstrates that they feel there is a market for this.


Please release a real number of how many end users have actually signed and are using the NBN in Tasmania and extrapolate this across the population to give us a real idea of how broke we are all going to be?

So, signups in a non-representative TAS population within a few weeks of turnup is going to be "it"?  Come on.




And MMC before you ask your “give us a better plan” question, there are other options and ways that I have seen floating around, but many are commercially sensitive and that is why nobody answers that question.

... sure ... they're certainly being so quiet that none of it has made it this far west.   We've been eager to sign up to almost all alternate fixed line services - just look at the number of FTTH greenfield estates we're connected to.  Clearly people don't want customers.

I'm very curious about one thing here:

How many people have read what NBNCo have produced so far and/or been to their industry engagement meetings?

MMC


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