[AusNOG] NBN: "i want a pony! but can I afford it"

[Jason Sinclair]

Hi Mark,

I think the fundamental question that needs to be asked, which you have
touched on, is what does the population want? I think the issue that I
see being tossed around is what does the Industry think the landscape
should/could/will look like in x years, however the only real answer to
that is in the hands of those who acquire it.

Sure - there is a place for the Industry to lead these trends, and yes
Industry plays a crucial part in leading what is possible, however we
can't and shouldn't decide for the end-user what they must have.

Apple has done an outstanding job in marketing and leading people to
devices like the iPhone, iPad, etc and this has definitely been a
game-changer in how people use (and want) technology, however forcing
consumers down a fixed path is not in my mind the way to lead this.

I think we as an Industry need to lead the way in showing what is
possible and even with clever marketing influence people as to what they
may want, however at the end of the day "deciding" for the consumer is
not the right way.

Is "the NBN" necessary for our country and future generations -
definitely. Is the current proposed models the right way - the only
answer I have (and this will disappoint) is who knows. I don' think so
but again without the answer of what does the consumer want then I am
probably going to be wrong.

The fundamental question not asked and needing asking is what does the
population want/require, what additional Industry-led initiatives are
possible (eHealth, etc) and then, and only then can we answer the
question of how to build the thing. If this were truly an infrastructure
initiative then the issue of commercial return would be low on the list
of requirements, but having this mandated means this turns from a
national infrastructure project of national importance to one of product
marketing. And if that is the path that is going to be mandated to us
then we'd better be certain what product demand there is........

I tend to agree that if we the Industry can't articulate what the future
looks like then there is a fundamental problem. And the reason we can't
do that is we are not looking asking the right questions. Speaking of
future generations I definitely want my kids to have a future that
includes technology, connectivity and better than what we have today -
but I definitely don't want my kids and their kids paying for a white
elephant that nobody wants simply because we didn't ask the right
questions...........

Jas

-----Original Message-----
From: ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net
[mailto:ausnog-bounces at lists.ausnog.net] On Behalf Of Mark Smith
Sent: Tuesday, 17 August 2010 8:50 AM
To: Matthew Moyle-Croft
Cc: ausnog at ausnog.net
Subject: Re: [AusNOG] NBN: "i want a pony! but can I afford it"

On Fri, 13 Aug 2010 15:53:51 +0930
Matthew Moyle-Croft <mmc at internode.com.au> wrote:

> 
> On 13/08/2010, at 2:27 PM, John Edwards wrote:
> 
> 
> On 13/08/2010, at 2:11 PM, Matthew Moyle-Croft wrote:
> 
> I really want, given I have some kids, to have a broadband future here
in Oz.   I'd like to not have bandaid after bandaid that is the current
suggestions.   I'd REALLY like to have a vibrant communications industry
with a lot of options for local loops/backhaul etc.
> 
> Time will solve that problem for you - given another change of
government it is unlikely that they'll still be kids by the time any
broadband plan is fully executed.
> 
> Awesome - so you're saying we're stuck with what we've got?   Bravo
John, very forward looking.
> 
> 
> Keep in mind that there were kids in regional areas starting
high-school in 2007 (when the government of the day announced the
previous national broadband plan) who may be leaving school soon never
having had access to a broadband connection at home. Ask them whether
they care if it's 12 megs or 100.
> 
> So, we've failed so far, so we should continue to fail?
> 
> 
> The wrong solution may not be better than no solution at all, but it's
still a better result than the wasteful flip-flopping between different
plans that stifle other investment.
> 
> 
> Come on John, I've been in or around this industry for the best part
of two decades.   I spend my time dealing with Telstra and getting
DSLAMs installed, so I'm intimately familiar with the industry,
regulation, it's successes and failures.
> 
> At the moment, I'm so deeply disappointed that, on this list, no one
can articulate a way forward other than "NBN is bad for me and so I
don't want it", so let's not change the familiar status quo.
> 
> Even Mark resorted to "well, let's just wait and see, because we've
been waiting and seeing for 2 decades".
> 

Not quite what I said. What I am saying is lets make sure the fixed
infrastructure only model is the right thing to do, because there are
obvious fundamental changes to the way people are using
telecommunications - they're going mobile. What is the risk of waiting
a year or two to see if that trend continues? Come to think if it, that
trend has only emerged so prevalently since the last election i.e.
since an NBN arrived on the political agenda. 4 or so years ago the
trend might not have been anywhere as near as obvious as it is now.

Thinking about it a bit more, I think 3G and the iPhone were the game
changers that have emerged in the last 3-4 years. 3G provided enough
bandwidth to provide a close to a low end broadband Internet access
experience, unlike it's mobile predecessors, and the iPhone provided
enough screen real estate and performance that using one to access the
Internet was close enough to accessing it using a laptop or a desktop.

> If _we_ the industry can't articulate what the future looks like, then
we'll end up with it being decided for us or having nothing change
(because we can't explain why or what) and so we end up grumbling for
another few decades and be no better off.
> 

So if the Labor government hadn't come along 4 or so years ago with an
NBN policy, what were the industry's plans to overcome this issue that
is supposedly so urgent to address? I don't remember the industry
articulating any major plans for the future. Did the industry have a
vision for the future, or does it need governments to provide one for 
it?

In the last four years, new DSLAMs have still been deployed. New Wimax
networks have been deployed, as have FTTH networks into housing
developments and major 3G networks. It actually seems that the industry
had a plan, if only a reactionary one driven by customer demand,
_despite_ the NBN and the consequential risks associated with deploying
new access infrastructure that may be obsoleted within the next 5 or
so years. This is also despite there being no guarantee of being
compensated for that infrastructure if customers are forced onto the
NBN.

> Come on.   What does the future look like?   If we want regulations
changed, then how would that happen to be fair?   How we would setup
things so that we could improve region by region, area by area in a way
that makes more sense?
> 
> Can we devolve telecommunications local loops to councils with some
national standards to the builds can be done when roads are upgraded by
the local councils and thus have relevancy to the people in the area?
(eg. like Austria and other countries)?
> 
> Surely there are some people with ideas?   I'm interested in more than
just "well, we bandaid a bit for a few years and hope that "technology
fixes it for us"!
> 
> MMC
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