[AusNOG] Flogging a dead horse

[Tim McCullagh]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Matthew Moyle-Croft" <mmc at internode.com.au>


>Tim,
>The demand for faster services exists.

I don't doubt it exists, but is it enought to justify $43 billion or more 
investment?
If it exists Answer the question , How many people are demanding speed? 
What percentage of the market specifically.
Your continual denial to answer that question suggest you don't know.  You 
should make yourself aware of some of the demand data, you may find you 
think differently about it.  I know what it is in my local area. People are 
moving from ADSL to mobile wireless becasue they can save $5 per month and 
it still does everything they need.  I do have doubts about the long term 
sustainability of such a move.

Also remember the companies Commindico, Onetel etc.   They built networks on 
the basis of if we build it they will come.  Where are they now.  What about 
the power company in Western Australia.  They did a FTTH network on their 
poles, it is now closed down.   There needs to be some thought go into NBN 
before the mistakes of the past are repeated again.  NBNco needs to come 
clean with pricing and a business plan, then many will be able to make an 
informed decision about whether they want it and demand figures will be 
estimateable.  Until then it is a GIANT CON.    It the demand truely existed 
someone would be building it now.

That is not to say that there should not be focus on addressing needs in 
areas where the market has failed and we should be deploying next generation 
solutions in those areas.  However I am sure that will not cost $43 billion.


> The constant denial that it doesn't and the demand isn't going to grow is 
> tiring as you know it's not true.

The demand may be growing and as it reaches a point where it is viable to 
justify investment then this will be met in most areas as it has beeen since 
1995 onwards.  At present the demand is not there to justify a $43 billion 
investment.   For those that want fast service you can get them now from any 
number of suppliers.  The issue is that some of those demanding such 
services don't want to pay for them at the current market rates, which is 
exactly the point I am trying to make for the majority of Australians when 
it comes to the NBN.  Why should the majority have the hide to demand, that 
everyone else takes a price increase so that they can get something they are 
currently not prepared to pay for?

>/me hopes you're going to be vocal about the government spending same kinds 
>of dollars on a few ships,
>submarines and fighter planes over the next decade.

No I am definately not.  I have some idea what role those ships planes and 
other equipment and personel are used for.
Just in case you don't know
Ships patrol our waters to ensure the integrety of our borders so that such 
things as illegal boats don't bring people, drugs and deseases to our 
country.
For thirty seconds imagine what would happen if we didn't patrol our borders 
and someone brought in animals from indoneasia with rabbies or foot and 
mouth and desease in.  That would cost this country a bucket load more than 
the cost of a few boats.  The beef industry would be decimated for a start 
and trying to eradicate it in places like kakadu would be a tall order. 
Imagine what rabies would do to native wildlife.
Planes they are also used for the purpose above, they are also used in times 
of natural disasters to ferry necessities to where they are required.
etc etc etc.  It may pay to see what defence actually does.  On top of that 
it employs a lot of people in your home state and mine.  It trains a lot of 
Australians which then contribute to the society in other areas.  It 
develops technologies that serve to improve civilian technologies.  Think 
for a moment about the reseach that has gone into such things as batteries 
used in subs and satelites.  These technologies end up in yours and my daily 
lives.
Please don't use such offensive examples.  Your focus on defense is like 
saying I am the only one that matters I want my broadband and I don't care 
if we can't defend ourselves as long as I get my broadband.  I know that is 
not what you mean.  I understand it is all about getting a balance.

>Certainly if we can't afford NBN then we can't afford to spend the same 
>money on defence as well.

Your kidding aren't you.

> Still I see no alternate plan other than "hopefully technology will save 
> us from ourselves".

I don't see to much thought going into this in your arguments either.  I 
haven't seen you rebutt my arguments by addressing the issues.

I guess someone has to play the devils advocate

As someone pointed out to me today (thankyou) I am one of those that has 
invested my own $ in infrastructure and some others are the techs that 
install and maintain some of the infrastructure and we both see it from 
different perspectives.  That is good, it all adds to the understanding.

regards

Tim